Estonia’s top Defense Ministry civil servant, Kusti Salm, believes that the solution to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is to increase the production of more ammunition. He believes that Ukraine will win the war if this is done faster and more effectively than the Russians. However, Salm acknowledges that the EU can provide the right signals to arms manufacturers, but low increases in defence budgets and broader EU legal reforms are needed to encourage more arms production. The war in Ukraine is largely based on ammunition, with Ukrainian forces firing up to 240,000 shells per month and Russian units firing up to 600,000 shells per month. The US and Europe have donated over a million shells from their stockpiles, but their production of new shells is far below Ukraine’s consumption.
The EU announced an Estonian-led initiative in March 2022 to acquire two billion euros to acquire shells for Ukraine over a year, supporting new joint procurement and replacing shells that can be sent directly from stockpiles. Salm is confident that the shells will be delivered by mid-2024.