Brexit, the United Kingdom’s decision to leave the European Union (EU), has reverberated far beyond its borders, sending ripples through the political landscape of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). As one of the EU’s key regions, CEE has not been immune to the consequences of this historic event. Assessing the impact of Brexit on CEE regional politics reveals a mix of challenges and opportunities for the countries in the region.
One of the primary concerns for CEE countries in the aftermath of Brexit has been economic uncertainty. The UK is an important trading partner for several CEE nations, and the possibility of disruptions to trade relations have raised questions about the future stability of economic ties. Many CEE countries heavily relied on exporting goods and services to the UK, and potential trade barriers could adversely affect their economies. Consequently, these countries have been keen on securing new trade agreements with the UK to mitigate the impact of any trade disruptions. So far, the general trend since 2016 has been positive.
Brexit has also triggered shifts in geopolitical dynamics within the EU. With the UK’s departure, CEE countries have seen changes in the balance of power within the union. The UK was often seen as an advocate for the interests of some CEE countries, particularly regarding issues such as EU enlargement and security cooperation. With the UK’s voice less influential within the EU, CEE nations have had to adapt their strategies for advocating their priorities and interests at the EU level. Some sceptics of ‘ever-closer union’ feel that they have lost an ally.
The departure of a net contributor to the EU budget like the UK has raised concerns about the future of EU cohesion funding for CEE countries. Cohesion funds have played a crucial role in supporting the development and infrastructure projects in the region. The absence of the UK’s financial contributions may result in decreased funding for CEE countries, necessitating careful negotiations and budgetary planning within the EU.
Brexit has had implications for security and defense cooperation within the EU. The UK was a significant contributor to European defense capabilities, and its exit has prompted discussions about the future of EU defense initiatives and the extent to which CEE countries will participate. Ensuring continued security cooperation and a robust defense posture will be essential for CEE countries to address shared security challenges effectively. Generally however, the region relies more on NATO and smaller bilateral and multilateral defence partnerships than on the EU, whose common defence strategies have been slow to implement.
Brexit has had an impact on discussions about EU enlargement and the prospects for integration for CEE countries. As the EU navigates its new dynamics without the UK, the path for potential new members has become more complex. CEE countries aspiring to join the EU may encounter greater scrutiny and face more stringent criteria for accession. The colossal sums of money which the UK contributed to the EU over what it received made it much easier for the union to accept new net-beneficiary states. There remain some candidate countries in the Balkans who likely lament the exit of the UK.
Despite the challenges posed by Brexit, the event has also reinforced a sense of solidarity and unity among CEE countries. Facing common concerns, these nations have sought to cooperate and coordinate their positions within the EU to safeguard their shared interests. Losing an ally means the region must be more self-reliant and build more resilience against over-encroachment of the EU locally.
In conclusion, Brexit’s impact on CEE regional politics has been multifaceted, presenting both challenges and opportunities. As CEE countries adapt to the changing dynamics within the EU, fostering cooperation, advocating shared interests, and addressing economic and security concerns will be essential to navigate this new era of European politics. The journey ahead requires adaptability and a commitment to strengthening the bonds that tie the region together in a post-Brexit Europe.
