Climate change is opening the possibility of a new Northern passage. Antony J. Blinken, the U.S. secretary of state, will attend an informal meeting of NATO foreign ministers in Norway,  Sweden and Finland, as they press Turkey to ratify Sweden’s quick entry into NATO.

The alliance has significant vulnerabilities in the north. Matti Pesu, an analyst at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs, believes that the combination of Russian aggression and climate change creates a “perfect storm.”

Global Warming means Russia’s Arctic shipping routes are becoming less icebound and easier to navigate, while its territorial waters become accessible and attractive for competitive commercial exploitation and military adventurism. Russia remains a vast Arctic power, with naval bases and nuclear missiles stationed along its Arctic’s western edge. With climate change, China has also been busy trying to establish itself in the region and use new unfrozen routes.

In response to NATO’s enlargement, Russia is putting increasing emphasis on the Arctic, where they’re stronger and less surrounded by NATO allies. Finland, Sweden, Norway and Denmark have decided to merge their air forces, creating one with more planes than either Britain or France.

The Arctic Council – which involves indigenous peoples of all Arctic nations, has been paused since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. After Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, China started making inroads around 2018, trying to buy ports in Finland and mines in Greenland, prompting former President Trump to offer to buy Greenland.

The main question is whether the real Russian threat to Scandinavia will come from the sea, as Norway fears, or from the land, with a possible Russian invasion of the Baltic States or Finland, then a move westward. A modernised Russian Northern Fleet could swing down through the straits between Greenland, Iceland and Britain, a move known in NATO as a „red right hook,” to cut sea lanes and underwater cables and threaten the American East Coast with cruise missiles. Mr. Dalsjo of the Swedish Defense Research Agency reminds us however that Russia is predominantly a land power – its northern fleet is considerably smaller than it was during the Cold War.
“If they didn’t do it then with 150 ships,” Mr. Dalsjo asked, “why would they do it now with 20?”