Czechia – Two years after its defeat in the parliamentary elections on 8 and 9 October 2021, mainly due to the collapse of the Social Democrats (ČSSD) and the Communists (KSČM), the party of former Prime Minister Andrej Babiš has recovered, to say the least.

ANO would gain 7% of the vote compared to 2021

According to recent polls reported in the Czech press, if early elections were to be held now, the ANO movement would come out well ahead with 34% of the vote (compared with 27.1% two years ago). However, both his former Social Democrat partners and the Communists who supported him de facto would apparently be unable to obtain the 5% needed to make a comeback in the Chamber.

By contrast, its victorious opponents in 2021, Prime Minister Petr Fiala’s ODS, the Christian Democrats (KDU-ČSL) and the Liberal-Conservatives of TOP 09 – who had joined forces in the SPOLU coalition – would obtain just 13%, 4% and 5.5% respectively, giving a total of just 22.5% (compared with 27.8% in 2021). In doing so, their allies in the coalition of the Pirate Party and the Mayors’ Movement (STAN) would win 18% of the vote (compared with 15.6%). Finally, the far right, represented by the SPD of the Czech-Japanese Tomio Okamura, is likely to regain much of its 9.6% score.

Neither the outgoing government nor ANO would have an absolute majority in the Chamber

In terms of seats in the Chamber of Deputies, this could well lead to a stalemate situation, with neither ANO movement (85 seats) nor Petr Fiala’s outgoing five-party coalition (SPOLU, Pirates and STAN – 91 seats together) able to form a majority… At least 101 seats are required. The question would then be whether Andrej Babis would rather seek some sort of arrangement with the radical right (24 seats) or whether an agreement with the ODS (33 seats) might be possible…

However, these results should be treated with a degree of caution, given that the next Czech parliamentary elections are not expected to take place until autumn 2025, and that if “more than half (52%) of the respondents answered that they are sure about their participation and the party they would vote for in the event of an election,” It also means that 48% of the Czech voters, almost the half, are still likely to change their minds between now and then, which could change the situation in either direction.