Passengers on the Moscow-Kaliningrad train route, traversing through Lithuania, are being starkly reminded of the brutalities of Russia’s war in Ukraine. At Vilnius’ central station, an impactful display of 24 photographs captures the harrowing scenes of conflict, posing a provocative question to viewers about their stance on Putin’s actions. This visual confrontation occurs during a brief technical stop, leaving some passengers to deliberately avoid the display.

The journey’s significance is heightened as the train passes through the strategically vital „Suwałki Gap,” a 60-mile stretch along the Lithuania-Poland border. This area has long been a source of concern for NATO and Baltic states, fearing potential Russian aggression. Recent Belarusian military exercises near the region have raised alarms about a possible Russian strategy to isolate the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania from NATO.

Kaliningrad, once part of Germany and annexed by the Soviet Union after World War II, is feeling increasingly isolated amid Russia’s ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Its strategic importance as a militarised zone and home to significant Russian military capabilities, including the Baltic Fleet and nuclear-capable missiles, contrasts with the growing sense of confinement among its residents. Alexei Chabounine, a journalist from Kaliningrad, reflects on this sentiment of isolation.

The war in Ukraine has led to substantial troop mobilisations from Kaliningrad, with hundreds of casualties reported. The region is also contributing materially to Russia’s war efforts. Yet, there’s a growing sense of disconnect from the conflict among Kaliningrad’s populace, who seek to maintain a semblance of normalcy amidst the censorship and the war’s indirect impact.

Russia’s strategic focus on bolstering Kaliningrad’s defences and infrastructure signals its anticipation of potential isolation. Efforts to make the exclave self-reliant in energy and other resources underline this concern. However, the region’s strategic vulnerability in a broader NATO-Russia conflict remains a point of contention.

The cultural identity of Kaliningrad, distinct due to its diverse post-World War II population and historical ties with Europe, has undergone shifts since Russia’s initial aggression in Ukraine in 2014. Russian authorities have intensified efforts to align Kaliningrad more closely with Russia’s national narrative, at times in opposition to local sentiments.

Polish politician Radosław Sikorski’s advocacy for easing travel restrictions for Kaliningrad residents reflects a nuanced view of the exclave’s populace, often seen as more critical of Putin’s regime. The idea of Kaliningrad seeking a more autonomous or Europe-leaning status has been a subject of fringe political movements, though such aspirations face considerable challenges under the current geopolitical climate.

As Russia grapples with the fallout from the Ukraine war, the future of Kaliningrad remains uncertain. The region, seen as strategically cumbersome yet crucial for Russia, might face significant changes in the coming years, particularly as NATO’s presence in the Baltic region strengthens.