Today’s Bundestag elections in Germany are crucial not only for the country’s future but also for all of Central Europe. The election results will influence Germany’s foreign policy direction and, consequently, economic relations, energy policies, and security in the region. Much will depend on the composition of the new ruling coalition, which could shift Berlin’s priorities.
Potential Coalition Scenarios and Their Implications
Due to the likely lack of an absolute majority, CDU/CSU will have to seek coalition partners. Various configurations are possible, including alliances with the SPD, the Greens, or even three-party coalitions. The choice of coalition partner will impact Germany’s policy direction, including its relations with Central European countries.
Migration Policy
One of the main topics of the election campaign was migration policy, particularly in light of the rising support for the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD). Regardless of who forms the new government, stricter border controls and attempts to renegotiate EU asylum regulations are expected. This could lead to tensions with Central European countries, particularly Poland and the Czech Republic, which have previously opposed mandatory refugee relocation mechanisms.
If the Greens or SPD join the coalition, Berlin may push for a more solidarity-based approach to migration policy within the EU, which would likely face resistance from Central European governments. Conversely, a more conservative CDU/CSU-led government might focus on strengthening the EU’s external borders and intensifying cooperation with transit countries.
Defense Policy and Transatlantic Relations
One of the most significant challenges for the new government will be defining Germany’s role in European defense policy. Amid the ongoing war in Ukraine and the reduced U.S. engagement in Europe, Germany may increase defense spending and actively support NATO initiatives and the EU’s Common Security and Defense Policy.
Defense cooperation with Central European countries, particularly Poland and the Baltic states, could deepen. Increased deployment of the Bundeswehr in the region as part of NATO operations is also a possibility. However, if parties skeptical of Germany’s military involvement come to power, Berlin might adopt a more passive stance, weakening Europe’s deterrence capability against Russia.
Energy Policy
Energy policy will be one of the key areas where Germany could influence Central Europe. Under the current coalition, Berlin has aimed to phase out fossil fuels and develop renewable energy sources, affecting the entire EU. The new government may either continue this policy or make adjustments, especially if CDU/CSU decides to increase the role of natural gas in the energy mix.
In the context of Central Europe, decisions on energy infrastructure will be crucial. Germany could support the development of joint hydrogen projects but might also impose stricter emission regulations, which could negatively impact countries like Poland, still heavily reliant on coal. Another major issue will be nuclear energy policy—Berlin remains skeptical about nuclear power, while the Czech Republic and Poland plan to expand their nuclear energy programs.
