Moldova’s election authority has published the final list of participants for next month’s parliamentary vote, closing registration on the eve of Independence Day festivities that will double as a high-profile show of European support for President Maia Sandu’s push to join the EU by 2030. Twenty-one parties and blocs made the cut for the September 28 election, a contest widely seen as a referendum on the country’s pro-European course after a bruising year of political turbulence and allegations of Russian interference. Sandu’s governing Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) currently controls 61 of parliament’s 101 seats but enters the campaign on the defensive: the latest polling cited by election officials and local media suggests PAS could secure about 41 seats, with two opposition alliances—the pro-Moscow Patriotic Bloc of Socialists and Communists and the insurgent Alternative Bloc—projected at roughly 36 and 13 seats, respectively.

The registration milestone lands as three of Europe’s most prominent leaders arrive in Chisinau to mark Independence Day and underscore Moldova’s EU path. French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk are joining Sandu at Wednesday’s ceremonies, a carefully choreographed tableau meant to telegraph that Moldova’s integration ambitions enjoy political wind at their back despite intensifying hybrid threats. Their visit follows July’s landmark EU-Moldova summit in Chisinau—the first of its kind—which produced a joint declaration reaffirming Moldova’s European future and laid out fresh economic support tied to reforms. The symbolism is hard to miss: as Moldova courts the EU, it is also racing the calendar at home, with a volatile campaign, fragile public finances and persistent energy-security concerns all converging in the weeks before the vote.

Sandu has set the stakes plainly, arguing that anchoring Moldova inside the EU is the only durable guarantee of sovereignty after Russia’s full-scale invasion of neighboring Ukraine upended the region’s security order. She has accused Moscow of trying to tilt Moldova’s elections through illicit financing and disinformation, warning most recently that up to $100 million could be funneled into the country in cryptocurrency to boost pro-Russian forces. Those allegations come amid a series of legal and political actions tied to alleged interference: a pro-Russian regional leader was jailed in early August for channeling Russian funds to a now-banned party; the EU has sanctioned additional associates of fugitive oligarch Ilan Shor for destabilizing activities; and Moldova’s Central Election Commission has refused to register Shor’s “Victory” bloc over campaign-finance violations. Russia and those targeted deny wrongdoing, but the cumulative effect has been to keep the specter of outside meddling at the center of Moldova’s national conversation.

The opposition, for its part, has coalesced into clearer vehicles for discontent over living costs, corruption and the pace of reform. The Patriotic Bloc, forged by Socialists and Communists and fronted by former president Igor Dodon and veteran leftists, promises to restore pragmatic ties with Russia, lower utility bills and slow what it casts as a hurried march toward Brussels. The newer Alternative Bloc blends figures from across the spectrum and is often accused by government allies of masking a pro-Kremlin tilt; one of its leaders, ex-prosecutor general Alexandr Stoianoglo, argues the West’s interest in Moldova will wane once the war in Ukraine subsides and says the country needs a more “balanced” foreign policy. PAS counters that any reversal on European integration would jeopardize the rule of law and the investment needed to lift wages, modernize infrastructure and lock in energy diversification away from Russian supply.

This autumn’s vote is the first big test of public sentiment since a dramatic political year in which Moldovans simultaneously re-elected Sandu and narrowly endorsed constitutional changes to hard-wire the country’s EU trajectory. The referendum scraped past the 50% threshold and, like the presidential runoff, was decided in part by diaspora voters, whose turnout has repeatedly proven decisive. The opposition has used the closeness of both outcomes to argue that Sandu lacks a mandate for sweeping reforms, while the president and her allies say the message was clear even if the margin was tight: a small country on the EU’s frontier wants the protections and prosperity that membership promises. Diplomats caution that accession will be a marathon. But the July summit signaled Brussels’ intent to keep pace with Moldova through a reform-for-funding framework and deeper single-market integration, even as the bloc juggles enlargement politics and security anxieties of its own.

All of this unfolds under the long shadow of Transnistria, the Russian-backed breakaway region where the presence of Moscow’s troops and ammunition stockpiles remains a lingering reminder of unresolved security risks. EU leaders used the July summit to restate their support for Moldova’s sovereignty and called for the withdrawal of Russian forces, a line that will resonate through the campaign whenever energy prices spike or fresh disinformation cycles hit social media. For many voters, however, day-to-day concerns may loom larger than geopolitics: wages, pensions, and whether reforms translate into tangible improvements at hospitals and schools. PAS is betting it can persuade a skeptical middle that sticking with the European track is the fastest route to those outcomes; the opposition says voters have heard promises before and deserve relief now.

The immediate horizon is procedural but consequential. With the field set, parties will race to mobilize activists, raise money within stricter legal limits and fine-tune messages for a fragmented media environment saturated with foreign-produced content. International partners, spurred by the Independence Day optics and the July summit’s commitments, are likely to expand technical assistance for election integrity and information resilience. Moldova has rarely felt so exposed—or so courted. The question at the heart of this campaign is whether enough voters believe that the European bet will pay off soon enough to endure another round of painful but necessary reforms, or whether fatigue will tip the balance toward parties offering a different path and the promise of quicker fixes.