Slovakia’s energy security has once again become a subject of strategic concern as the future of Russian natural gas transit through Ukraine hangs in the balance. With the current transit agreement between Kyiv and Moscow set to expire at the end of 2024, Bratislava faces the possibility of disruptions that could directly impact its economy and energy stability.

A Transit-Dependent System

Slovakia’s energy infrastructure has long been shaped by its position as a key transit country for Russian gas heading to Central Europe. The Eustream pipeline network, running from the Ukrainian border westward, has historically carried the majority of Russian supplies destined for Austria, the Czech Republic, and beyond. Transit fees have been a major source of revenue for the Slovak economy, while Slovak households and industries have depended on these same flows for domestic consumption.

Diversification Efforts

Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Slovakia has intensified efforts to diversify its energy supply. Reverse-flow connections with the Czech Republic, Austria, and Hungary now allow greater flexibility, while the interconnector with Poland offers access to LNG terminals on the Baltic coast. Moreover, Slovakia has invested heavily in storage capacity, enabling it to buffer against short-term shocks.

Despite these measures, the country remains partially reliant on Russian deliveries transiting through Ukraine. Analysts warn that if the transit contract lapses without a replacement agreement, Slovakia may need to rely much more heavily on alternative supply routes—likely at higher costs.

The Nuclear Factor

Nuclear power provides a strong counterweight to Slovakia’s vulnerability in gas supplies. With the commissioning of new units at the Mochovce nuclear plant, nuclear now covers more than half of the country’s electricity demand. This reduces reliance on fossil fuels in power generation, but gas remains crucial for heating and industry, especially in the winter months.

Geopolitical Dimensions

The uncertainty surrounding Russian gas transit through Ukraine highlights broader geopolitical tensions. For the EU, ensuring that countries like Slovakia and Austria do not face severe supply shocks is central to the bloc’s energy solidarity framework. Brussels has pledged support through joint gas purchasing and expanded LNG imports, yet the logistics of delivering sufficient volumes inland remain complex.

For Bratislava, the challenge lies in balancing immediate energy security with long-term transition goals. The government continues to back EU decarbonization targets, but in the short term, its energy system is still tied to the shifting dynamics of Russia’s war in Ukraine.

Outlook

As winter approaches, Slovakia’s energy planners are watching both Moscow and Kyiv closely. The expiration of the transit deal could mark a turning point for Central Europe’s energy map, forcing Slovakia to fully test the resilience of its interconnectors, storage facilities, and partnerships within the EU.

In the long run, success in strengthening infrastructure and diversifying supply will determine whether Slovakia can transform from a vulnerable transit state into a more resilient energy hub.