A new opinion survey suggests that most Lithuanians do not expect significant change under recently appointed Prime Minister Inga Ruginienė, who took office following the resignation of her scandal-hit predecessor Gintautas Paluckas.

According to a Baltijos tyrimai poll conducted for the news agency ELTA, only 27 percent of respondents believe Ruginienė will perform better than Paluckas, while 46 percent expect little or no difference. A further 12 percent anticipate she will do worse, and 15 percent remain undecided.

The survey indicates notable demographic divides. Support for Ruginienė is higher among women (29 percent), middle-aged respondents, and residents of smaller towns. Skepticism, however, is more widespread among men, young people under 30 (47 percent), older voters over 65 (49 percent), and residents of major cities (52 percent). Conservative and liberal voters in particular were the most likely to argue that the change of leadership would not bring meaningful reform.

Ruginienė, Lithuania’s former minister for social affairs and a prominent trade union leader, assumed office in late August 2025 after Paluckas stepped down amid political scandals that eroded his credibility and divided the ruling Social Democrats. Her appointment was meant to stabilize the government and restore public trust ahead of upcoming municipal and presidential elections, but the poll suggests the electorate remains cautious.

The survey, conducted between August 21 and September 2 across 114 sampling points, included 1,006 adult Lithuanian residents and carries a margin of error of up to 3.1 percent.

Context: Political Flux in Lithuania

Lithuania, a NATO and EU member state, has experienced political turbulence in recent years, shaped by domestic debates over social reforms, corruption scandals, and regional security concerns linked to Russia’s war in Ukraine and instability in neighboring Belarus. Ruginienė’s background as a union organizer and social policy advocate could appeal to voters seeking fairer labor conditions and welfare reforms. However, critics question whether she can assert authority in a fractious parliament and push through meaningful change at a time of economic pressures and geopolitical uncertainty.

The poll underscores the challenge she faces: while Ruginienė may benefit from a temporary honeymoon period, her ability to build credibility will depend on whether she can distinguish her leadership style from her predecessor’s and address public concerns about stagnation in governance.