Poland’s economy grew by 3.3% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2025, according to the latest data from the Central Statistical Office (GUS). The figure represents a minor downward revision from the earlier estimate of 3.4%. The Q1 growth rate remains unchanged at 3.2%.

Last week, GUS also revised its full-year 2024 GDP data, reporting 3.0% growth, up from the previously estimated 2.9%. Economists interpreted this as a signal that further adjustments for 2025 might follow — which has now been confirmed.

GUS Explains the Revision

According to GUS, the updated figures for the second quarter reflect both a higher statistical base from 2024 and a worsening trade balance.

“The change in GDP dynamics for Q2 2025 results from a higher base after the 2024 revision and a deterioration in net exports,” the agency said in its report.

Economists at Bank Millennium noted that historical data revisions “due to changes in the statistical base may lead to slight adjustments in GDP dynamics for the second half of this year.”

Components of Growth Adjusted

The revision also affected the structure of GDP growth.

• Investment demand in Q2 fell by 0.7% year-on-year, a smaller decline than previously estimated (-1.0%).
• Consumer demand grew slightly faster, by 4.5%, compared with the earlier figure of 4.4%.

For Q1, investment demand growth was adjusted upward to 6.4% (from 6.3%), while consumer demand rose by 2.6% (previously 2.5%).

Additionally, GUS revised data for all four quarters of 2024, showing a generally stronger investment performance — either faster growth or smaller declines than earlier estimated.

Economists’ Reactions and Outlook

Economists from ING Bank Śląski commented that the updated figures “paint a more favorable picture of investment activity in 2024, which raises the base for 2025.” However, they cautioned that the growth structure “may tilt further toward consumption at the expense of investment.”

ING still forecasts 3.5% GDP growth for the whole of 2025.

According to the Ministry of Finance’s latest macroeconomic projections (2025–2029), investment is expected to increase by 7.2% year-on-year, while private consumption should grow by 3.4%, matching the overall consumption rate.

Forecasts from IMF and the Polish Government

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released its latest forecast on October 14, projecting 3.2% GDP growth for Poland in 2025.

Meanwhile, the government of Prime Minister Donald Tusk remains slightly more optimistic — expecting the economy to expand by 3.4% this year, according to the Ministry of Finance’s updated outlook.