Romania’s economy is still on track to expand this year, with growth likely to reach around 1% or more, according to National Bank of Romania (BNR) Governor Mugur Isărescu. Presenting the Inflation Report on November 14, Isărescu said that despite a quarterly contraction recorded in the third quarter, the country is unlikely to enter a technical recession—defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth.

Isărescu stressed that Romania’s January–September GDP data already show a year-on-year expansion of 1.5%, citing flash estimates from the national statistics office (INS). “Based on hope and my own experience, we will not witness two consecutive quarters of negative growth. But even if the fourth quarter turns out negative, the full-year economic growth will still be positive, somewhere around 1%,” he told reporters.

The governor emphasised that the central bank is committed to reducing inflation without deepening the economic slowdown. He noted that the BNR is aware of the pressures the government faces in trying to curb the pro-cyclical nature of fiscal policy and has therefore refrained from imposing excessively hawkish monetary measures that could further hinder growth.

At its most recent board meeting, the BNR kept its key policy rate unchanged at 6.5%. With headline inflation still close to 10% year-on-year, the stance may appear dovish. However, Isărescu argued that much of the price pressure is transitory and that overly aggressive tightening could do more harm than good at this stage.

Looking ahead, the BNR expects inflation to continue easing. According to the governor, headline inflation is projected to fall to 8.8% by the end of this year and to decline further to around 3.7% by late 2026.

While uncertainties remain, Isărescu’s outlook signals confidence that Romania can avoid recession and sustain modest growth amid a challenging regional and global economic environment.