On Monday, March 2, global financial markets reacted sharply to news of US and Israeli attacks on Iran. A mass exodus of capital from regular assets to safe havens and fears of disruption to trade routes led to significant price fluctuations in oil, precious metals, and currencies.

Oil Breaks the Psychological $80 Barrier

The most spectacular shift occurred in the crude oil market. Brent oil jumped as much as 13 percent on the market open, breaking through the $80 per barrel level. Although prices initially stabilized before rising again, the volatility demonstrates the market’s considerable anxiety.

By 9:00 AM Warsaw time, crude oil prices reached $80 per barrel (a gain of nearly 10 percent). American WTI crude also surged more than 9 percent to $73.19.

Analysts point out that the main reason for the price increases is not the conflict escalation itself, but its practical consequences: the actual halting of tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The strategic maritime route, which accounts for approximately 20 percent of global oil and LNG gas trade, has been effectively blocked. This prevents the delivery of as many as 15 million barrels of oil daily to consumers.

Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy, assesses the situation clearly: „The most direct and tangible impact on markets is the actual stoppage of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which prevents 15 million barrels of oil daily from reaching consumers.”

Could the 1970s Scenario Repeat?

Analysts are comparing the current situation to the oil embargo of the 1970s, which drove prices up as much as 300 percent. Alan Gelder of Wood Mackenzie warns: „Breaking through the level established at that time, which in today’s terms amounts to $90, in light of fears about significant supply losses seems very realistic.”

OPEC+’s decision on Sunday to symbolically increase production by 206,000 barrels per day is unlikely to satisfy analysts. Its impact on prices will be minimal as long as the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked.

Stock Markets: From Cairo to Hong Kong in the Red

Although stock markets in Islamic countries typically operate on Sundays, the first wave of selling began as early as March 1. Egypt’s EGX 30 index fell 2.5 percent, while Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul dropped 2.18 percent.

On Monday, the full weight of negative sentiment reached Asia. Japan, being heavily dependent on energy imports, suffered most from the specter of an energy crisis. The Nikkei index fell 2.35 percent at the market open, with the largest losses in the airline sector and industries dependent on raw material imports. Later in the session, losses moderated to around 1.35 percent.

The negative wave spread across the entire region:

• MSCI Asia Pacific (ex-Japan): a decline of 1.78 percent
• Hong Kong: a loss of 2.12 percent

Warsaw Spared Worse Losses – Orlen to the Rescue

European markets also did not escape the selloff. At the Frankfurt exchange open, Germany’s DAX fell 2 percent, while France’s CAC40 dropped 1.95 percent.

On the Warsaw Stock Exchange, the WIG20 and WIG indices lost 1.35 percent and 1.57 percent respectively just after market open. However, in this bleak picture, one bright spot emerged.

Orlen proved to be the day’s star, with its shares rising as much as 4.85 percent. Its decisive gains alone prevented the blue chip index from experiencing deeper declines. In the WIG20, only KGHM (+0.89 percent) and Modivo (+0.05 percent) managed to gain alongside Orlen.

Before the US market open, S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures were down more than 1.5 percent.

Gold Rises, Dollar Strengthens

Traditionally during times of uncertainty, capital fled to so-called safe havens. Gold prices surged to $5,420 per ounce, representing a gain of 3.28 percent. Silver rose similarly strongly – up 3.39 percent to over $96.45 per ounce.

The dollar, as an international reserve currency, also strengthened significantly. The USD/EUR rate rose 0.65 percent to 1.1741. Against the Polish zloty, the dollar jumped to 3.60 PLN. The Swiss franc gained 0.71 percent, reaching 4.68 CHF/PLN.

Digital assets could not withstand selling pressure. Bitcoin fell below $66,000 (from earlier highs of $67,000), and Ethereum dropped below $2,000. Other assets in the top ten also posted losses.

Summary: Uncertainty Persists on Markets

Financial markets sent a clear signal: the escalation in the Middle East and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz pose a serious threat to the global economy. Rising oil prices, increased returns on safe haven capital, and investor fears of an energy crisis will likely impact market quotations for weeks to come.

Key questions remain unanswered: Will the trade route be restored soon? Will global economies be able to survive a potential oil price spike? And if so, what will investors be betting on in the coming weeks?

One thing is certain – markets will closely watch every development in the Middle East situation.