Russia’s propaganda machine has launched another disinformation campaign, this time aimed at Estonia — a NATO member state. Calls for the establishment of a People’s Republic of Narva are growing louder across social media, and Estonian security services are sounding the alarm.

„Russians, We Are Not Alone!”

German military analysts, including expert Julian Ropcke writing for Bild, are tracking a rising wave of Russian propaganda materials. In posts and comments, users are being encouraged to distribute leaflets, engage in acts of sabotage, arm themselves privately, and support the Russian military. Fictitious maps outlining the new quasi-state entity, along with its symbols and flags, are circulating widely. The slogans being amplified — „Russians, we are not alone!” and „Russian land stretches from Narva to the Forest” — will sound familiar to anyone who remembers the early days of the conflict in the Donbas.

Why Narva?

Narva is a border city in eastern Estonia with a population of around 50,000 people. As many as 90 percent of its residents are Russian-speaking — making it a natural target for the Kremlin’s well-worn narrative about „persecuted Russians abroad,” repeatedly used as a pretext for destabilization efforts.

The spokeswoman for Estonia’s internal security service, Marta Tuul, has no doubts about the nature of the campaign. She described it as a provocation and part of a broader disinformation effort, stressing that participation in it may carry legal consequences. She also noted that similar operations are being conducted simultaneously in other countries.

The Shadow of the Donbas

Estonian security services are drawing attention to troubling parallels with events in Ukraine in 2014. Back then, a months-long propaganda campaign in the Donbas preceded the armed seizure of buildings, the formation of separatist forces, and the proclamation of so-called people’s republics in Donetsk, Sloviansk, and Mariupol — all with substantial support from Russian intelligence services.

An anonymous source within Estonian intelligence does not rule out that the current campaign may be laying the groundwork for a similar scenario. The source also points to the timing as no coincidence: the intensification of these activities has coincided with global attention being focused on the war in the Middle East.

What Comes Next?

Although Narva lies within the territory of a NATO member state — which theoretically makes any act of aggression a matter for the entire Alliance — history has shown that Russia is capable of operating in a grey zone, below the threshold of open invasion. Disinformation campaigns, provocations, and the construction of grassroots separatist movements are tools that have been tested and, as the Donbas demonstrated, proven effective.

Estonian security services are monitoring the situation closely. The question remains whether the rest of Europe has drawn sufficient lessons from those events.