The parliamentary election in Slovenia turned into one of the closest political contests in Central Europe in recent years. The ruling liberals from Prime Minister Robert Golob’s Freedom Movement managed to edge out Janez Janša’s opposition Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) by only a fraction of a percentage point. Although a winner has formally emerged, the country’s future will now depend on difficult coalition negotiations.
According to the announced results, the Freedom Movement won 28.54 percent of the vote and secured 29 seats in the 90-member parliament. SDS received 28.17 percent support, translating into 28 seats. The difference was therefore symbolic, but politically highly significant. Third place went to the coalition of New Slovenia, the Slovenian People’s Party, and Fokus, which won nine seats. The Democrats and the Social Democrats also entered parliament with six seats each, while the Left–Spring coalition and the civic movement Resni.ca won five seats apiece.
This balance of power means that no party has any chance of governing alone. The next cabinet will have to be built on a multi-party agreement, and coalition talks may prove lengthy and complicated. In practice, the smaller parties will become the decisive force, determining whether Slovenia remains on its current liberal course or shifts toward a more conservative-populist political direction.
The election was watched closely not only in Slovenia itself, but across the entire European Union. In recent months, many countries on the continent have seen growing support for right-wing and populist forces. In the Czech Republic, nationalists and populists have taken power; in Slovakia and Hungary, governments with a clearly sovereigntist and pro-Moscow profile remain in office; and in Germany and France, far-right parties are gaining ground. Had Janez Janša returned to power, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán would have gained yet another political ally at the EU table.
The campaign itself was exceptionally turbulent. In its final weeks, the main focus shifted away from taxes, inflation, and public services, and toward accusations of external interference and covert political operations. At the beginning of March, audio and video recordings were published that were meant to implicate the ruling camp and suggest illegal lobbying as well as the misuse of public funds.
The scandal quickly took on an even more serious dimension when Slovenian authorities reported the involvement of the Israeli private intelligence firm Black Cube. According to these reports, the company had allegedly conducted illegal surveillance and wiretapping, and had also visited SDS headquarters. Janez Janša admitted that he had been in contact with a person linked to the firm, but firmly denied commissioning it to gather compromising material on the government.
Prime Minister Robert Golob tried to use the affair to mobilize his own electorate. During the campaign, he framed the election as a clash between two visions of the state: liberal democracy and pro-European values on the one hand, and the illiberal model of government represented by Janša on the other. In a letter addressed to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, he even called for an investigation, describing the matter as a possible hybrid threat to the European Union as a whole.
The opposition also sought to benefit from the scandal. SDS argued that the leaked recordings were proof of corruption at the highest levels of government. Golob’s supporters countered that the entire operation showed the willingness of political opponents to resort to foreign instruments of influence in their struggle for power. As a result, the campaign turned into a brutal contest over credibility and control of the political narrative.
The dispute did not remain a purely domestic issue. It also spilled over into Brussels, where the European People’s Party, to which SDS belongs, began pushing for a hearing in the European Parliament over allegations directed at Slovenia’s EU commissioner Marta Kos. The accusations claimed that decades ago she had cooperated with Yugoslavia’s secret police. Kos strongly denied the charges, and people close to her office described them as politically motivated.
Although the electoral showdown ended with a narrow victory for Robert Golob’s camp, it is difficult to speak of a strong mandate to govern. Slovenia is entering a period of political uncertainty, and the final shape of the new government will be the result of painstaking negotiations and compromises. One thing, however, is certain: these elections have shown that the country remains deeply divided, and that the struggle over its political direction is only just beginning.
