Croatia is entering the 2026 tourist season with high expectations, but also with more caution than in previous years. After a record-breaking 2025, when the country recorded more than 21.8 million tourist arrivals and 110.1 million overnight stays, both the authorities and the tourism industry are hoping to repeat a very strong result. However, this will not be an easy season: success will depend not only on good weather and the appeal of the Adriatic coast, but above all on prices, transport accessibility and the international situation.
Data from the beginning of the year show that interest in Croatia remains strong. In January 2026, the number of tourist arrivals in commercial accommodation increased by 2.6 percent, while the number of overnight stays rose by 2.5 percent compared with the previous year. In February, arrivals grew by 4.8 percent, although overnight stays increased more modestly, by 1.2 percent. In the first two months of the year, Croatia recorded 592,000 arrivals and 1.4 million overnight stays, respectively 3.8 percent and 1.8 percent more than a year earlier.
The key conclusion from these figures is that the 2026 season is unlikely to bring a downturn, but rather a period of cautious growth. Croatian authorities estimate that the country may reach around 22 million arrivals and 110 million overnight stays, while tourism revenues could exceed EUR 15.5 billion. This would be close to the record level achieved in 2025, showing that Croatia is no longer fighting to recover tourists after the pandemic, but rather to maintain its strong position in an increasingly competitive Mediterranean market.
The biggest challenge will be prices. Prime Minister Andrej Plenković has stressed that a reasonable pricing policy will be one of the conditions for a successful season. This is particularly important because, since joining the eurozone, Croatia has increasingly been perceived by tourists as an expensive destination. The tourism sector must therefore find a balance between rising operating costs and the expectations of visitors who compare Croatia with Greece, Italy, Montenegro, Albania or Turkey.
The forecasts are also influenced by the geopolitical situation. Tensions in the Middle East and rising fuel prices may push up airfares, potentially limiting some travel, especially from more distant markets. This is particularly visible in Dubrovnik, which is highly dependent on air transport — according to local data, around 80 percent of visitors arrive there by plane. On the other hand, part of global demand may shift towards Europe, which could be an opportunity for Croatia, provided it remains price-competitive.
Croatia remains strong thanks to the loyalty of tourists from Central Europe. In 2025, Poles were among the most important foreign visitors. According to eVisitor data, 1.24 million tourists from Poland visited Croatia, generating 7.32 million overnight stays. Poland retained fourth place among Croatia’s most important foreign tourism markets, after Germany, Slovenia and Austria.
From the perspective of Polish tourists, the 2026 season may therefore be one of earlier planning and greater price sensitivity. As usual, the highest prices can be expected in July and August, especially in popular destinations in Dalmatia, Istria and around Dubrovnik. Trips in June, September and October may become increasingly attractive, as prices are lower, the weather is still favourable and the most popular resorts are less crowded.
For several years, Croatia has been trying to shift part of its tourism activity beyond the peak holiday season. Official communications emphasise the development of year-round, premium and sustainable tourism, as well as cooperation with airlines, tour operators and booking platforms. This is a response not only to market needs, but also to the problem of excessive pressure on the coast in July and August. In 2025, as many as 104.6 million overnight stays were recorded on the Adriatic coast, while the continental part of the country, including Zagreb, accounted for 5.6 million overnight stays.
The forecast for the 2026 season is therefore moderately optimistic. Croatia is likely to maintain its position as one of Europe’s most popular holiday destinations, including for Polish tourists. However, a sharp increase in tourist numbers should not be expected. A more likely scenario is stabilisation at a very high level: strong demand, many bookings, but also greater pressure on service quality and more cautious decisions by travellers. For Croatia, this season will be a test of whether it can remain not only a beautiful, but also a reasonably priced holiday destination.
