Estonia could immediately close its border with Russia if Moscow announces a general mobilization, Prime Minister Kristen Michal has said. The decision would depend on an updated security assessment and the precise form of any Russian mobilization campaign.

The warning came after a government document titled “Cabinet memo: Russian Federation mobilization” appeared in Estonia’s official document register. Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna explained that the country’s security cabinet regularly examines possible Russian actions and prepares responses to a range of scenarios.

Michal said there was nothing unusual about such preparations, arguing that Russia’s deteriorating economic and military position could eventually force the Kremlin to take additional steps to sustain its war against Ukraine.

According to the prime minister, Russia is losing between 30,000 and 40,000 soldiers killed or wounded each month. He said NATO and European Union countries must be prepared for the consequences of any further escalation, including a potential large-scale mobilization.

Estonian authorities can close border crossings at very short notice, Michal stressed. The Police and Border Guard Board and the Interior Ministry already have procedures allowing them to act rapidly if the security situation changes.

“The border can also be closed immediately,” the prime minister said, noting that Estonia had previously temporarily restricted crossings in response to disturbances at the frontier.

Estonia has already shortened the opening hours of its border checkpoints and introduced comprehensive customs inspections. Further measures would be determined by the nature of the threat, with Tallinn applying the principle of reciprocity in its border policy toward Russia.

Tsahkna warned that a general mobilization, particularly one covering entire age groups, could significantly increase internal tensions in Russia and prompt more Russian citizens to seek entry into the European Union.

He argued that the resulting pressure would not be limited to countries directly bordering Russia. According to the foreign minister, the wider Schengen Area issued approximately 650,000 visas to Russian citizens last year, despite the continuing war in Ukraine and growing security concerns.

Estonia maintains much stricter restrictions and has taken a leading role in pressing other European countries to limit visas for Russian citizens, particularly those who have participated in the war. Tsahkna criticised EU countries that continue to issue large numbers of visas, warning that European authorities may not always have sufficient information about those entering the bloc.

The minister also stressed that fleeing a Russian mobilization order would not automatically entitle a person to international protection in Europe. A mobilization order could also apply to Russian citizens—or their children—living abroad, including those already residing in EU countries.

Estonia’s preparations reflect broader concerns across NATO’s eastern flank that Russia could intensify its mobilization efforts to replenish losses and prolong the war. Tallinn believes that stricter border controls and closer European coordination will be necessary if Moscow decides to expand military conscription on a nationwide scale.