In the ever-shifting landscape of international relations, the relationship between Belarus and Russia is often characterised as that of a Russian puppet state. Especially in its role as a military ally during the invasion of Ukraine since 2022, and now garrisoning Wagner Group paramilitary soldiers, the country can be often viewed as simply an extension of its larger neighbour. However, a closer examination reveals a more intricate tapestry of diplomatic dynamics, where Belarus demonstrates moments of independence and strategic manoeuvring.
Belarus’s historical and cultural affinity with Russia runs deep, reinforced by shared linguistic and historical roots. The region was ruled by the Kievan Rus, the Grand Duchy of Lithuania, the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, the Russian Empire, and the Soviet Union all in the last thousand years. The legacy of the Soviet era further strengthened these ties, shaping Belarus’s political and economic alignment with its larger neighbour. Economic reliance on Russia for energy supplies and trade partnerships has also contributed to perceptions of Belarus as being closely tied to Russia’s interests.
Amid the perception of Belarus being a Russian puppet state, instances of independent decision-making and pragmatic engagement with other countries come to the fore. Belarus has maintained diplomatic relations with the European Union, participating in discussions on issues such as border security. In 2020, Belarus expelled several Russian diplomats in response to requests from EU countries, signalling its ability to engage independently in diplomatic matters.
There has been talk since 1996 of a Russian-Belarussian ‘Union State’, a full monetary union and single citizenship between the two countries, but Belarus has been extremely slow to implement the necessary preliminary policies, indicating unwillingness to complete the project.
Belarus has sought to reduce its dependency on Russian energy supplies. In response to a 2019 oil price dispute with Russia that led to a supply cutoff, Belarus explored alternative oil sources. Previous disputes in 2004, 2007, and 2009 also led to energy and dairy sanctions. In a notable move, Belarus purchased oil from Norway in May 2020, indicating its efforts to diversify energy imports.
Belarus has actively pursued closer ties with China, reflecting its efforts to broaden economic partnerships. President Alexander Lukashenko’s visit to China in 2019 resulted in agreements worth billions of dollars, highlighting Belarus’s desire to expand beyond reliance on Russia.
Belarus and Russia’s relationship is far from a straightforward tale of puppetry. While historical ties and economic dependence on Russia are evident, Belarus has demonstrated moments of diplomatic independence and strategic manoeuvring. Engaging with other countries, diversifying energy sources, and showcasing its autonomy in international forums, Belarus exhibits a complex foreign policy approach that defies a simplistic puppet-state narrative. As the geopolitical landscape continues to evolve, understanding the nuances of Belarus-Russia relations is essential for comprehending the broader intricacies of international diplomacy.
