Bulgaria has been navigating a delicate balance between supporting Ukraine without provoking Russia, as the Balkan state has been historically influenced by Moscow. Opinions on Ukraine are divided among its 6.7 million people, many of whom buy into Kremlin propaganda. The new coalition government, elected in June after two years of political deadlock, is shifting Bulgaria towards Kyiv and the West. Sofia has been quietly shipping ammunition to Kyiv since 2022, but the most recent pledge of 100 armoured vehicles was the first package to be announced publicly. Bulgarian Defence Minister Todor Tagarev stated that supporting Ukraine is in Bulgaria’s strategic interest for several reasons. Russia „broke all international norms” and is „destroying the international security architecture.” Bulgaria also heavily depends on Russian oil. Some Bulgarians still see Russia as the power that liberated their country from the Ottoman Empire in the 1800s, but this is changing. A growing number of Bulgarians support Ukraine, and Russia’s war in Ukraine appeared to be the wake-up call that his country needed. Bulgaria is a good friend to have, with its abundant Soviet weapon stockpiles and large defence industry. The new coalition government, which differs significantly from the president’s position, is in charge of defence, security, and foreign policy, not the president. Getting Bulgaria’s aid is important, especially now, as American support is imperilled by a deadlock in the House and pro-Russian prime ministers of Slovakia and Hungary veto EU support for Ukraine.
The Black Sea has been a significant stage of Moscow’s imperial aggression, with Russia contaminating the sea with hundreds of mines and conducting regular naval exercises. Bulgaria now faces two concerns about the Black Sea: Russia’s ongoing firing drills that threaten the Balkan state’s territorial integrity and floating mines. Since exiting the Black Sea Grain Initiative deal in July, Russia has used naval exercises to block Ukrainian exports of grain. Part of Bulgaria’s economic zone in the Black Sea remains partially blockaded, with Russia’s ongoing training nearby.
Bulgaria is discussing with NATO allies about Russia’s continued partial blockade of its economic zone but has not issued a solution yet. Despite the provocation, Tagarev said it is still „not a direct threat to the territory or for aggression against a member of the NATO alliance, but there are a variety of risks.” The Turkish Defence Ministry announced a trilateral cooperation with Bulgaria and Romania to deal with the mines, but did not elaborate in detail. The goal is to clear mines „on a systematic, more rigorous basis within the joining forces of the three countries.”
After Russia pulled out of the grain corridor, Kyiv is still exporting – though in much lower volumes. Tagarev returned to his defence minister office after 10 years to find his neighbour engulfed in war and the Black Sea region in peril. He has one of his key priorities is modernising the army, as the country had had five elections in two years, meaning there is a large backlog of work to be done.