The Polish fuel market has found itself in an unusually ambiguous situation. On the one hand, the government has launched the CPN package, “Lower Fuel Prices,” which is intended to reduce prices at filling stations through cuts to VAT and excise duty, as well as the introduction of a maximum price. On the other hand, at almost the same time, Orlen increased its wholesale fuel prices. At first glance, this seems contradictory: the state is trying to ease the burden on drivers, while the country’s largest market player is pushing the market in the opposite direction.
The scale of the government intervention is significant. According to information from the Chancellery of the Prime Minister, the package is supposed to lower retail fuel prices through temporary tax cuts and price regulation. Industry forecasts by e-petrol suggest that in the week of March 30 to April 5, 2026, a litre of Pb95 petrol could cost 5.99–6.19 PLN, diesel 7.39–7.60 PLN, and LPG 3.73–3.86 PLN. By comparison, before the new measures were introduced, the average price of Pb95 stood at around 7.14–7.16 PLN per litre, while diesel cost 8.69–8.75 PLN.
At the same time, on March 28 Orlen raised the wholesale price of Ekodiesel by 171 PLN per cubic metre, and that of Eurosuper 95 petrol by 103 PLN per cubic metre. According to industry calculations, this means an increase to roughly 7,041 PLN/m³ for diesel and 5,714 PLN/m³ for Pb95. This is an important signal, because wholesale prices are one of the key factors shaping what customers ultimately pay at the pump.
Does this mean the promised relief for drivers will turn out to be an illusion? Not necessarily. In the short term, the government’s tax cuts are substantial enough that they may outweigh the simultaneous increase in wholesale prices. That is why analysts still expect a noticeable drop in retail prices, even though Orlen has raised its wholesale rates. In addition, the maximum fuel price is to be calculated according to a statutory formula that includes, among other things, the average wholesale price, excise duty, the fuel surcharge, a margin of 0.30 PLN per litre, and VAT. Selling above the cap could result in a fine of up to 1 million PLN.
In practice, this means that drivers may indeed see lower prices on station signs than they did just a few days ago, though perhaps not as low as the tax cuts alone might suggest. The reason is simple: the retail fuel market in Poland does not operate in a vacuum. Orlen and other operators purchase fuels and components under conditions that depend heavily on the European market, imports, logistics costs, and contractual arrangements. The company points out that more than 30 per cent of the fuel available on the Polish market comes from imports, while wholesale prices remain linked to quotations for finished fuels across Europe.
This is precisely why the current situation is generating such strong political and social emotions. From a driver’s perspective, what matters is the final price at the pump, not the technical distinction between wholesale and retail fuel prices. From the market’s point of view, however, the problem is that the state is trying to reduce the consumer’s bill through administrative means at a time when global and regional conditions are still pushing costs upward. The government is therefore attempting to cushion the price shock, while the wholesale market is reminding everyone that the underlying fundamentals remain under pressure.
For now, the most likely scenario is this: fuel at filling stations will indeed become cheaper in the coming days, but that will not necessarily mean the market has stabilized for good. Orlen’s increase in wholesale prices shows that cost pressure has not disappeared. As a result, the current price reduction may bring short-term relief for drivers, but it does not solve the problem structurally. If tensions on global markets continue, the dispute over who is really responsible for fuel prices in Poland will quickly return. Changes at filling stations are expected to become visible no earlier than Tuesday, so only the beginning of the week will show the full effect of this clash between politics and the market.
