Beijing’s influence in the Balkans declined in 2024, with Bosnia and Herzegovina standing out as the only country in the region where Chinese presence grew — particularly within the Serb-run Republika Srpska entity — according to the latest China Index report published by the civil society network China in the World (CITW).
“This is the first time we can systematically compare PRC [People’s Republic of China] influence across countries and over time,” said Tim Navan, Deputy CEO of Taiwan-based Doublethink Lab, which contributes to the China Index. “The data not only shows where vulnerabilities are deepening, but also where societies are proving resilient.”
The report attributes China’s declining influence in most Balkan states to shifting public opinion and growing skepticism over Chinese investment projects. However, in Republika Srpska, Chinese engagement has expanded, especially through infrastructure investments and strengthened political partnerships.
Serbia and Turkey Remain Most Exposed
The index ranks Serbia 34th out of 101 countries in terms of exposure to Chinese influence, with Turkey following at 42nd — a drop from 31st place in 2022.
In Serbia, the main channels of cooperation with Beijing remain government and ruling party elites, with most issues handled at the highest political levels. The economy continues to be the dominant area of cooperation, alongside growing collaboration in academia and defence.
Despite tensions over China’s treatment of its Uyghur Muslim minority, Chinese influence in Turkey continues to grow — especially in the economy and technology sectors, where Chinese entities are investing heavily through partnerships, loans, and acquisitions. The report notes that as Turkey experiences democratic backsliding under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, China’s leverage over Ankara is likely to expand.
Bosnia Rises in the Rankings
Bosnia and Herzegovina was the only Balkan country to rise in the global rankings, climbing to 54th place in 2024 from 70th in 2022. The report highlights significant Chinese investments in Republika Srpska’s infrastructure sector as a key driver of this increase.
“The strategic partnership between the Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD) and the Communist Party of China underlines a deeper political engagement beyond economic ties,” the report says, warning that this relationship could shape future policy decisions and regional alignments.
Regional Trends
Other Balkan countries saw notable drops in their ranking:
- Bulgaria: 45th (down from 36th in 2022)
- Romania: 72nd (down from 53rd)
- Greece: 77th (down from 69th)
- Montenegro: 100th (down from 77th)
- North Macedonia & Albania: 101st (bottom of the list)
Globally, Singapore, Cambodia, and Pakistan were ranked as the countries most exposed to Chinese influence.
The China Index measures Beijing’s overseas influence across nine domains: Academia, Domestic Politics, Economy, Foreign Policy, Law Enforcement, Media, Military, Society, and Technology, offering one of the most comprehensive comparisons of Chinese engagement worldwide.
