Qatar halts LNG production after Iranian attacks – Poland and Croatia must prepare for difficult conditions

March 2026

The escalation of the conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran has led to catastrophic consequences for global energy markets. On Monday, March 2, Iranian drones attacked two key liquefied natural gas (LNG) production facilities in Qatar – the industrial centers in Ras Laffan and Mesaieed. In response, Qatar Energy, the world’s largest LNG producer, halted all production, triggering a global energy crisis.

Scale of the Catastrophe

Halting production in Qatar means losing as much as 20 percent of global LNG supply. According to Goldman Sachs estimates, the interruption of supplies will reduce global gas supply by nearly one-fifth. Gas prices in Europe skyrocketed dramatically – European benchmarks rose by almost 50 percent in a single day. The Dutch TTF index (Title Transfer Facility), regarded as Europe’s reference point for gas prices, reached 46.59 euros per megawatt-hour (MWh).

The situation is worsened by additional threats. Iran has announced it is closing the Strait of Hormuz – a critical maritime shipping lane through which approximately 20 percent of global LNG trade and 15 percent of global oil trade flows. If the blockade lasts longer, the consequences will be comparable to the 2022 energy crisis that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Threat to Poland

Poland finds itself in a difficult situation. In 2025, LNG supplies from Qatar accounted for approximately 20 percent of all liquefied gas deliveries to our country. This means that halting production directly impacts Poland’s energy security.

Energy Minister Miłosz Motyka reassured the public just on February 28 that „Poland’s gas supply security is not threatened,” however, the situation changed dramatically within days. The energy ministry claims that in case of a lack of supplies from Qatar, the missing volumes will be sourced from the spot market – the open wholesale market. The problem is that prices on this market have been rising rapidly in recent days, which means a serious increase in costs for Polish energy consumers.

Poland must also remember that LNG is not electricity – it differs from Russian gas supplies through Ukraine, which would threaten our security. However, dependence on Qatar also proves problematic in case of unpredictable conflicts in the Middle Eastern region.

Croatia in a Worse Situation

Croatia, which also imports LNG from the Middle East, faces even greater challenges. The country has less diversified sources of gas supplies than Poland and is more dependent on the Iranian region. The loss of access to Qatari LNG means potential energy shortages and significant price increases in Croatia’s domestic market.

EU plans regarding energy transformation and independence from Russian energy sources could be jeopardized if global energy prices rise to the point where investments in green energy become less profitable for businesses and households.

Global Consequences

Europe is not the only region affected by the crisis. Asia, particularly China, South Korea, and Japan, are even more dependent on Qatari LNG than the Old Continent. Analysts warn that sustained disruption of supplies could lead to stagflation – a combination of economic stagnation and inflation – worldwide.

Indexed increases in energy prices could reach levels comparable to the oil crisis of the 1970s. Then, oil prices rose by as much as 300 percent. This time, increases could be even more painful, given the significantly greater global dependence on LNG energy.

What Now?

Polish and Croatian authorities must take immediate action. First and foremost, gas storage must be strengthened and alternative sources of supply secured. Negotiations with other LNG producers – both with Australia, the United States, and other countries – should be a priority. At the same time, governments must prepare for the possibility of implementing conservation mechanisms for gas consumption in case of serious shortages.

The conflict in Iran demonstrates how fragile global energy infrastructure is and how sensitive European economies are to geopolitical shocks. Poland and Croatia have already had to deal with the consequences of Russian aggression in Ukraine – now they must face new threats to their energy security.

The Middle East remains a hot spot on the world map, and global energy markets will remain on high alert until the conflict is resolved.

Article contains analysis based on reports from March 2026