Russia is set to deploy its new experimental missile system, known as Oreshnik, on Belarusian territory by the end of 2025, according to Belarusian Security Council Secretary Alexander Volfovich. Speaking to the press in late May, Volfovich confirmed that deployment locations have already been selected and that the process will be completed before the year is out. However, he did not disclose how many of the missile systems would be stationed in Belarus.
This move follows an earlier request by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, who in December 2024 asked Russian President Vladimir Putin to station ten Oreshnik systems in Belarus. Although the exact number remains unconfirmed, preparations for deployment are already underway.
The Oreshnik system is an intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) derived from the Russian RS-26 „Rubezh” platform. It is still considered experimental but has already been used in combat conditions. On November 21, 2024, Russia launched the Oreshnik system for the first time during a strike on the Ukrainian city of Dnipro. The warheads used in that strike were not live munitions but rather inert, mass-simulation heads. Despite this, the launch marked a significant milestone in demonstrating the missile’s operational readiness.
What sets the Oreshnik apart is its advanced technical capability. Russian officials claim the missile travels at speeds exceeding Mach 10 (over 12,000 km/h), which would allow it to evade most modern air defense systems. Additionally, it is capable of carrying nuclear payloads and features multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicles (MIRVs). Each missile reportedly contains six warheads that separate in the upper atmosphere and strike their respective targets.
The deployment of such a system on Belarusian soil carries far-reaching geopolitical implications. Military analysts warn that once operational, Oreshnik missiles based in Belarus could strike targets across much of Europe. While Belarus itself does not possess nuclear warheads, the stationing of a system capable of delivering them significantly raises the stakes in the region.
Volfovich defended the deployment as a necessary response to growing security threats, calling the missile system a „reliable deterrent against any aggression.” He also dismissed Ukrainian claims that the deployment might be a bluff, asserting that such beliefs are mere „comforting illusions” for those unwilling to confront the realities of changing regional power dynamics.
The development and deployment of the Oreshnik system have long been shrouded in secrecy. Western analysts suggest that it was a key factor in the United States’ 2019 decision to withdraw from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, which banned the development of such weapons. Russia, they argue, continued work on this system in violation of earlier agreements.
As the deployment timeline advances, international observers will be watching closely. The positioning of Oreshnik missiles in Belarus marks a substantial escalation in Russia’s military posture and sends a powerful message to NATO and neighboring countries. Whether the system ultimately serves as a true deterrent or further destabilizes regional security remains to be seen.
