Austrian tabloid Exxpress reported that 650,000 draft-age men have left Ukraine since February 2022, citing Eurostat data. The UN High Commissioner for Refugees reported that 6.3 million people have fled Ukraine since the war began. According to Eurostat data, 4.2 million Ukrainians have received temporary protections in the EU, with 18.3% (768,000) being men aged 18 to 64.
However, the statistics do not specify the number of men who have legally crossed the border as fathers of three children, persons with disabilities, or members of other categories allowed to leave Ukraine by law. The German Interior Ministry reported that 221,000 Ukrainian draft-age men have arrived in the country since February 24, 2022, with 189,000 still there. The ministry believes an additional 100,000 men are in the country illegally.
At least 14,000 Ukrainian men have gone to Austria, some of whom used forged documents or relied on smugglers. Between February 2022 and August 31, 2023, 19,740 men had illegally crossed the Ukrainian border.
Having access to a large pool of men becomes a crucial determinant of the state’s resilience and ability to withstand aggression when under the attack by an aggressor which has an even larger reserve pool and firepower in the form of artillery.
In the face of a numerically superior opponent, the ability to mobilize a large pool of men is a strategic asset. It allows for the creation of a robust and resilient defense force capable of withstanding prolonged conflicts marked by attrition.
It is also important for Ukraine to have access to a wide recruitment base, ensuring that the military can draw from diverse skills, experiences, and talents within the society. Finally, having large reserves also influences global perceptions and the possibility to garner international support. A determined and resilient population is likely to evoke solidarity from the international community, potentially leading to diplomatic and material support from allies.
Being able to withstand Russian aggression for more than a year and half, Ukraine has already proved its determination. Now it is up to its Western allies to provide the country with the weapons they need to decisively defeat the Russian Army once and for all.
