Despite a recent extension to the programme, farmers in Ukraine are concerned about the future of the Black Sea Grain Initiative. Exports have slowed through the corridor and there is a sense of dissatisfaction over the deal due to Russia pulling out and delaying vessel inspections, most recently for two days before May 9th. The Ukrainian restoration ministry said 90 ships were waiting in Turkey’s territorial waters for approval to go to Ukrainian ports.
Ukraine’s wheat exports fell 22.4% on the year, while corn exports rose 15.1%. S&P Global analysts forecast Ukraine to export 25.4 million mt of corn in 2022-23 and 18.5 million mt in 2023-24. The European Commission imposed trade restrictions in April, which have caused concern for Ukrainian farmers as the EU had become the largest buyer of their grains. Imports from Ukraine increased sharply as the EU removed tariffs on Ukrainian grains, leading to a supply glut and depressed local prices. Four eastern European nations imposed unilateral restrictions to protect local prices and help farmers, but the European Commission agreed to block sales of Ukrainian wheat, maize, and other products within those five member states. If normal trade with the EU does not resume, farmers will have to transport grains through eastern European nations to other destinations, which will cost more.
CENTRAL EASTERN EUROPE NEWS
Fears Continue over the Black Sea Grain Initiative
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