In the first round of Romania’s repeated presidential elections held on May 4, George Simion, leader of the opposition national-conservative and sovereigntist Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR), secured the largest share of the vote—40.96%. He will face Nicușor Dan, the centrist-right independent mayor of Bucharest, in the second round (20.99%). Dan was supported by the opposition Save Romania Union (USR) and narrowly outpaced Crin Antonescu (20.07%), the candidate representing the governing coalition composed of the Social Democratic Party (PSD), the National Liberal Party (PNL), and the Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR). Former Prime Minister Victor Ponta, once the leader of the Social Democrats and now espousing rhetoric similar to the MAGA movement, came in fourth with 13.04%. Elena Lasconi, leader of USR, placed fifth with 2.68%. The remaining six candidates garnered a combined total of just 2.25%.
Following the announcement of the results on May 5, the Romanian government entered a state of crisis. PSD—the largest party in the coalition, holding 26% of seats in the Chamber of Deputies and 27% in the Senate—declared its withdrawal from the coalition. Its leader, Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu, simultaneously resigned from his governmental post. The immediate cause of both decisions was Antonescu’s failure to advance to the second round. Nonetheless, PSD leadership announced that the government—under the direction of an acting prime minister to be appointed in the coming days—would continue functioning as a caretaker cabinet, with PSD ministers provisionally remaining in office.
Should Simion—now the frontrunner—emerge victorious in the runoff, the governing coalition crisis is expected to deepen. It cannot be ruled out that, in such a scenario, the PSD may seek to negotiate a coalition with AUR in an attempt to establish a working relationship with the newly elected president and avoid early parliamentary elections.
As anticipated, Simion decisively won the first round. The AUR leader, who received only 14% of the vote in the annulled November 2024 election, benefited from the endorsement of far-right, pro-Russian figure Călin Georgescu—the former winner who was disqualified from re-running. Recent polls indicated that Simion could expect 30–33% support domestically, but it was evident he would also draw significant backing from the diaspora, which accounts for approximately 10% of the total electorate. As many as 60% of Romanians living abroad cast their votes for the AUR leader.
The diaspora also proved critical for Dan, who received 25% support in that group—enough to narrowly surpass the governing coalition’s candidate. Unexpectedly, USR leader Elena Lasconi performed poorly (polls had forecast around 8%), largely because her own party officially endorsed Dan. In the annulled first round of 2024, she had secured as much as 19% of the vote—at a time when Dan was not a contender. That support was largely driven by protest voters seeking alternatives outside the political establishment.
Simion remains the favorite in the second round (scheduled for May 18), though the contest with Dan is expected to be closely fought. Simion is likely to attract a portion of Ponta’s electorate—given their shared anti-globalist, sovereigntist, and MAGA-aligned rhetoric—as well as some PSD voters who had supported Antonescu in the first round. Indeed, part of the Social Democratic base, despite the party’s decision not to officially back either candidate, aligns ideologically with nationalist themes promoted by Simion.
Nevertheless, the bulk of Antonescu’s supporters are expected to rally behind Dan. He has received formal endorsement from the PNL and will likely win the backing of UDMR voters, given Simion’s past anti-Hungarian remarks. Dan also stands to gain from former Lasconi voters and a more mobilized diaspora determined to prevent a nationalist victory.
The election outcome represents yet another blow to the decades-long PSD–PNL duopoly. On both May 4 and during the annulled 2024 presidential vote, the political establishment failed to advance a candidate to the second round—an unprecedented development in Romania’s post-1989 history. This reflects mounting public dissatisfaction and fatigue with the ruling elite, which was further exacerbated by the controversial decision to annul the previous elections.
The future of the governing coalition will hinge on the final presidential outcome. PSD’s decision to exit the coalition appears to be a strategic maneuver aimed at positioning itself for renegotiation of coalition terms with its former partners, PNL and UDMR. While these parties may be forced to cooperate with PSD to remain in power, the Social Democrats retain a degree of flexibility—and even the potential to form a coalition with AUR. Such a scenario, however, would require significant changes in PSD’s top leadership, as AUR has made clear it refuses to work with Ciolacu.
