On April 12, 2026, Hungarians will decide the future of their country. After 16 years of Viktor Orbán’s rule, the opposition has a real chance of winning — but will that actually mean taking power?
End of an Era or Another Orbán Term?
On Sunday, April 12, the eyes of all Europe will turn to Budapest — especially at 7:00 PM, when polling stations close and exit poll results are announced. The stakes could hardly be higher: the outcome will determine the fate of Viktor Orbán, who has governed the country for 16 years.
The Electoral System — A Complex Puzzle
The elections will choose 199 deputies to the National Assembly. 106 of them are elected in single-member constituencies, while 93 come from national party lists. The electoral threshold stands at 5% for parties running independently, 10% for two-party coalitions, and 15% for coalitions of three or more parties.
Five parties are technically running: the Two-Tailed Dog Party (a satirical group), TISZA, the Our Homeland Movement (Mi Hazánk), the liberal Democratic Coalition, and the ruling Fidesz-KDNP coalition.
Polls: Scissors Between Truth and Propaganda
The polling picture ahead of the vote is unusually murky. Two starkly different sets of figures are being published: independent polls and those conducted by institutions controlled by the authorities.
In pro-government polls, the ruling coalition leads by 5–8 percentage points. Independent polls, meanwhile, show TISZA ahead of Fidesz by anywhere from 9 to as many as 23 percentage points.
According to a mid-March survey by 21 Research Center — the firm that most accurately predicted the 2024 European Parliament results — TISZA could win 115 seats, Fidesz 78, and Mi Hazánk six, giving Magyar’s party a comfortable majority.
Winning the Vote ≠ Taking Power
Even if TISZA wins more votes, that does not automatically translate into forming a government. Due to the complexities of Hungary’s electoral system — including deliberate gerrymandering and the way postal voting is organized — winning more votes does not necessarily mean winning power.
The diaspora vote adds another complication: nearly half a million postal voters have backed Orbán’s side in over 90% of cases since the system was introduced in 2014.
A Campaign Shadowed by Ukraine and Russia
The election is unfolding against a backdrop of intense geopolitical tension. In Fidesz’s campaign narrative, Brussels is portrayed as the embodiment of all evil, with posters featuring the faces of Ursula von der Leyen, Manfred Weber, and Volodymyr Zelensky.
Zelensky has become the villain of the campaign, his face appearing on seemingly every corner alongside slogans claiming he wants to drag Hungarians into war or strip them of money they are owed.
Meanwhile, just days before the vote, US Vice President J.D. Vance flew in to meet Orbán, and Donald Trump recorded a video message expressing his „full and complete support” for the Hungarian prime minister.
On the other side of the geopolitical ledger, Russian diplomatic staff have reportedly been spotted at Fidesz campaign rallies in recent days, including a military attaché.
Who Is Péter Magyar?
The TISZA leader is a former Fidesz insider. He is counting on EU backing to help Hungary restore its credibility and trustworthiness — though anyone expecting Magyar to embrace EU federalism or European migration policy will be disappointed, as TISZA and Fidesz do not differ significantly on those issues.
On March 15, Magyar called his supporters to a „National March,” which organizers say drew half a million people.
Record Turnout on the Cards?
At least on paper, this election looks set to break turnout records. The previous high was recorded in 2002, at 70.5%.
