Poland – The prices of consumer goods and services in November 2023 increased by 6.5 percent year-on-year, and rose by 0.7 percent compared to the previous month, Poland’s Central Statistical Office GUS reported on November 30 based on preliminary data. The year-on-year consumer inflation rate is thus slightly down on October’s figure of 6.6%, and it is the lowest such figure since October 2021. However, October was a month when most economists said prices of petrol and diesel were artificially kept down by the country’s oil giant, Orlen, to give an additional boost to the government camp in the October 15 parliamentary elections.
According to calculations made by the Bankier.pl website, the price of petrol went up 6.6% between October and November and the increase was 7.7% for diesel. Year-on-year, however, fuel prices are down 5.7% while food and non-alcoholic beverages are up 7.2%.
The monthly increase in fuel prices caused the overall consumer price index to go up by 0,7% between October and November, which is the highest monthly figure since April 2023.
Because of the rise in fuel prices, the Polish Economic Institute (Polski Instytut Ekonomiczny) expects a small increase in the annual inflation rate in December, up to 7%, before it resumes its downward trend at the beginning of next year if the new coalition led by Donald Tusk keeps its promise to keep energy prices frozen for home heating.
The annual inflation rate was highest at the beginning of this year when it reached 18.4% before going on a steep slide down that lasted from April through to October. However, the good news from the November figures released by GUS is that core inflation (excluding energy and food prices, which are volatile) was down to 7.2–7.3% year-on-year compared to 8% in October.
“The reasons for such a significant drop in core inflation will become known with the full data (…) – perhaps there were bigger discounts during the Black Friday weekend than in previous years,” PKO BP bank analysts have said.
Poland’s GDP rose 0.5 percent year-on-year in Q3, compared to a 0.6 percent year-on-year decline in Q2 2023, according to GUS. The data shows that investment in Q3 increased by 7.2 percent year-on-year, private consumption went up by 0.8 percent, while domestic demand fell by 5.2 percent year-on-year.