Lithuania has declared a nationwide state of emergency in response to a surge in smuggling balloons and drones crossing its airspace from Belarus, a move Vilnius describes as part of a broader pattern of hybrid attacks. The decision was announced on Tuesday, following weeks of mounting disruption to civilian air traffic and growing concern that the incidents are being tolerated, if not actively encouraged, by the authorities in Minsk.
Prime Minister Inga Ruginienė had already signalled on 5 December that her government was preparing extraordinary measures to deal with the escalating situation. According to Lithuania’s Defence Ministry, the state of emergency will apply across the entire country, although officials insist that restrictions will be narrowly targeted. The ministry stressed that the measures “will not cause inconvenience to society” and will instead be focused on the organisers and perpetrators of illegal activities.
Defence Minister Władysław Kondratowicz, who has been appointed head of national emergency operations, underlined that the new framework will give the armed forces expanded powers in specific circumstances. These special powers are intended to make cooperation between the military and Interior Ministry services more effective and, where necessary, allow soldiers to act on their own initiative to counter aerial intrusions. In practice, this means a more robust and rapid response to unidentified objects in Lithuanian airspace, particularly near critical infrastructure and major transport hubs.
The scale of the problem is significant. Interior Ministry data show that so far this year there have been around 600 recorded violations of Lithuanian airspace by smuggler balloons launched from Belarus, along with 197 incidents involving drones. The balloons are typically used to transport contraband cigarettes across the border, but their flight paths increasingly intersect with civilian air corridors. Lithuanian authorities argue that even if the primary motive is smuggling, the cumulative effect of these flights – and the failure of Belarusian officials to stop them – makes them indistinguishable from deliberate hybrid operations designed to destabilise and harass a neighbouring EU and NATO state.
The most visible impact has been on Vilnius Airport. In October and November, the airport was forced to suspend operations on multiple occasions because of smuggler balloons detected in or near controlled airspace. The latest shutdown occurred on Saturday evening, once again disrupting passenger travel and airline schedules. According to Lithuanian officials, the repeated closures have affected more than 320 flights and over 45,000 passengers, roughly 5 percent of all travellers handled during the period in question. For a relatively small national hub, this is a substantial disturbance, with knock-on effects for regional connectivity and the airport’s reputation among carriers.
Lithuanian authorities maintain that the balloons are launched from Belarusian territory by cigarette smuggling networks, but they place ultimate responsibility on the state in Minsk. They argue that the Belarusian government has the means to curb such flights but has chosen not to, allowing criminal groups to operate freely in a way that directly affects the security and economy of a neighbouring country. In Vilnius, these incidents are now officially classified as hybrid attacks – actions that blur the line between crime, coercion and state-sponsored pressure.
Prime Minister Ruginienė has gone even further, suggesting that Belarus’s behaviour may ultimately be viewed as a form of terrorism if the pattern continues. Her comments reflect a deepening frustration that diplomatic protests and EU-level pressure have so far failed to stop the incursions. Lithuania sees the balloons and drones not as isolated smuggling attempts but as part of a wider toolbox of hostile measures, alongside cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns and the instrumentalisation of migrants, all used to probe and strain its institutions.
The declaration of a state of emergency is intended to send a clear signal both domestically and internationally. At home, it shows that the government is prepared to bring all available tools to bear on the problem, including closer military involvement in what would normally be a law-enforcement task. For allies in the EU and NATO, it underlines that the situation on the Lithuanian–Belarusian border is not a marginal issue but one that directly affects the safety of European air traffic and the integrity of external borders.
In Brussels, the pattern of airspace intrusions has already triggered concern. EU institutions have summoned Belarusian representatives to explain the repeated incidents, and there is growing discussion about whether additional sanctions or coordinated countermeasures may be necessary if the situation continues to deteriorate. For Lithuania, which has consistently taken a hard line toward the Lukashenko regime, the balloon crisis is another argument for maintaining strong pressure on Minsk and treating hybrid tactics as a core security challenge rather than a peripheral irritant.
For ordinary Lithuanians, the state of emergency is unlikely to be felt in daily life, at least in the short term. The government has gone out of its way to emphasise that measures will be “proportional and targeted” and that there is no intention to impose broad restrictions on movement or civil liberties. The main changes will be behind the scenes, in the form of revised rules of engagement for the military, increased surveillance and faster decision-making channels between the various agencies involved in airspace protection.
Yet the symbolism of the move is hard to ignore. Declaring a state of emergency over smuggler balloons might once have seemed unthinkable; today, it reflects a security environment in which even small, improvised devices floating across the border can force an EU member state to halt flights, divert resources and rethink its crisis-management systems. The Lithuanian government’s decision captures a broader European reality: in an era of hybrid threats, the boundary between low-level criminal activity and strategic coercion is increasingly thin, and the tools needed to respond are becoming more complex and militarised.
