The Polish government will not comply with the International Criminal Court’s (ICC) warrant for the arrest of the Israeli Prime Minister if he attends the 80th anniversary of the liberation of Auschwitz on January 27.

On Thursday afternoon, Donald Tusk announced a change in Poland’s position just hours after receiving a letter from Andrzej Duda. In the letter, the President requested assurances that Benjamin Netanyahu would not be detained in Poland. However, the Prime Minister stated that this decision had been in the works for several days and was not the result of the President’s initiative. “The Government of the Republic of Poland declares that it will ensure free and safe access to and participation in these commemorations for the highest representatives of the State of Israel,” read the Prime Minister’s statement.

This significantly weakens Poland’s efforts to bring Vladimir Putin before the ICC for war crimes in Ukraine.
If not pressure from Duda, then what provoked this shift in the Polish government’s stance? Netanyahu is one of Donald Trump’s closest allies, and Trump will assume office as U.S. President on January 20. The future of the war in Ukraine, NATO, and transatlantic trade could all depend on good relations between Poland—and Europe more broadly—and the new U.S. President. According to “Rzeczpospolita,” Netanyahu does not plan to visit Poland regardless. Thus, the change in Poland’s position will not have immediate practical implications. However, it does significantly undermine Poland’s efforts to one day bring Vladimir Putin before the ICC for war crimes in Ukraine.

The issue of the Israeli Prime Minister’s visit arose after an article was published in “Rzeczpospolita” on December 20. In the article, Deputy Foreign Minister Władysław Bartoszewski was asked about Netanyahu’s participation in the commemorations. He said, “We are obliged to respect the decisions of the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague.” On November 21, the ICC issued an arrest warrant for Netanyahu regarding accusations of pacifying the population of the Gaza Strip. According to Palestinian authorities, 46,000 people have died since Israeli forces began their pacification actions in the territory. News of Poland’s position has caused a significant international reaction.