The UK Defense Ministry predicts that the Russian Black Sea Fleet’s ability to use its Novorossiysk naval base to reload vessels with cruise missiles will significantly impact its operational effectiveness. The Ukrainian military reported that Russia has halted launching maritime cruise missiles against Ukraine due to logistical problems at Novorossiysk.

Russia is likely to expedite overcoming these issues in time for maritime cruise missiles to be included in any winter campaign of strikes against Ukraine. Russia’s Black Sea Fleet has reloaded cruise missiles at occupied Sevastopol in Crimea, which is at risk by Ukrainian long-range strikes. Following Ukrainian strikes on the Russian Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol in late September, Russia transferred several ships, including submarines, from Sevastopol to a port in Novorossiysk to safeguard the vessels from further Ukrainian strikes.

The UK Armed Forces Minister James Heappey stated that Ukraine’s attacks resulted in „the functional defeat” of the Russian fleet.

The naval base in Novorossiysk holds paramount importance for the Russian Navy due to its strategic location near the Kerch Strait, providing a gateway to the Sea of Azov. It is also the home of state-of-the-art naval facilities, including docking and repair facilities, ammunition storage, and logistical support infrastructure, allowing the Russian Navy to deploy, maintain, and repair a diverse fleet of warships, submarines, and auxiliary vessels, ensuring operational readiness.

The news about logistical problems in Novorossiysk will make it harder for Russia to sustain military operations in the Black Sea littoral and asserting control of the Black Sea itself.

If the Ukrainians will be able to damage more infrastructure in Novorossyisk with the help of either aerial or naval drones, it could lead to serious problems for Russia. If it will not be able to fire cruise missiles from its naval assets in the Black Sea, only the strategic airforce will remain available for such launches, creating a bottleneck that might make it impossible for Russia to induce as much damage against Ukraine’s energy grid this winter as they would like to.