Poland’s government is poised to make a long-awaited strategic choice on the future of its submarine fleet, with the Council of Ministers expected on Wednesday to select a partner country for the Orka programme – a multi-billion-euro plan to acquire three new submarines for the Polish Navy.

If the schedule holds, the partner state and main parameters of the project could be announced as soon as later this week, during Navy Day celebrations in Świnoujście. The decision will close more than a decade of delays and shifting priorities, and will set the course for Poland’s undersea capabilities for decades to come.

Six countries in the race

Deputy Prime Minister and Defence Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz confirmed that Warsaw has received six government-backed offers for Orka, from shipbuilders in Sweden, Germany, Italy, France, Spain and South Korea. In total, seven producers from those six states are competing for the contract.

The programme foresees the purchase of at least three conventionally powered submarines in the 3,000-ton class, with an option to expand the fleet later. The acquisition is framed not just as a replacement for ageing platforms, but as a major leap in deterrence: Poland intends to equip the new boats with cruise missiles, giving Warsaw a long-range strike capability from the Baltic Sea.

Political signalling has been intense in recent weeks. The British government has openly thrown its weight behind the Swedish bid from Saab, with Prime Minister Keir Starmer reportedly co-signing a letter of support with Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson and promoting potential industrial participation by UK defence firm Babcock.Reuters+1

Warsaw, however, insists that all proposals are being treated equally and that the final choice will be made at inter-governmental level, reflecting broader political and strategic calculations, not just price and technical performance.

A programme 12 years in the making

The Orka project has become a byword for the slow pace of naval modernisation in Poland. Initial analytical work on a new class of submarines began in 2013, and successive governments have promised to make a decision “within the year” – promises that repeatedly slipped.

That changed under Prime Minister Donald Tusk, who in September 2025 pushed through a government resolution committing his cabinet to select a partner state by the end of this year. He stressed that the submarines would be chosen “in a very deliberate way” and that Warsaw would “not succumb to any pressure,” a hint at the intense lobbying surrounding the tender.

The resolution elevated Orka to the rank of a strategic, inter-governmental project. Recommendations are being prepared not only by the Ministry of National Defence, but also by the ministries responsible for state assets, finance and the wider economy, underscoring the industrial and technological stakes involved.

According to recent briefings, the recommendation for a preferred bidder is already on the defence minister’s desk, with a dedicated cabinet meeting scheduled in the second half of November as the final decision point.

A navy down to a single ageing submarine

The sense of urgency is not abstract. Today, the Polish Navy relies on just one submarine: ORP Orzeł, a Soviet-built Kilo-class boat commissioned in 1985. The rest of the fleet – Norwegian-built Kobben-class submarines – has been retired.

Orzeł is widely regarded as obsolete and suffers frequent technical problems, requiring regular repairs just to remain afloat and minimally operational. The defence ministry has openly warned that if the vessel has to be withdrawn before new submarines arrive, Poland would lose not only undersea combat capability, but also its training base – leaving a generation of submariners without a platform on which to maintain skills.

Kosiniak-Kamysz has repeatedly praised the small cadre of submariners who have managed to preserve their professional readiness despite ageing equipment and constant maintenance challenges, arguing that they “particularly deserve recognition and reward in the form of new hardware.” That sentiment has become part of the political narrative justifying the cost and urgency of Orka.

Baltic security and NATO integration

Beyond national pride and the internal dynamics of the Polish Navy, the Orka decision carries significant regional implications.

The Baltic Sea has become one of NATO’s most sensitive theatres since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Submarines are seen as key assets for intelligence, surveillance, and the protection of underwater infrastructure such as gas pipelines and data cables. They also provide a stealthy platform for long-range precision strikes, complicating any adversary’s planning.

Analysts note that whichever design Poland selects will shape how closely its navy can integrate operationally with allies. German-Norwegian Type 212CD submarines, Swedish A26 Blekinge-class boats, French Scorpène-class designs, Spanish S-80s, Italian U212 NFS variants and South Korea’s KSS-III all bring different levels of compatibility with NATO systems, different approaches to air-independent propulsion, and different paths to integrating cruise missiles like the US Tomahawk.

In that sense, the Orka contract is not just about hulls and sensors, but about aligning Poland’s long-term undersea doctrine with a particular cluster of allies.

Industrial and technological stakes

For Warsaw, the choice of partner also doubles as an industrial policy decision. Think tanks and defence economists have argued that Orka should be used as a catalyst to revive Poland’s shipbuilding industry, expand domestic maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) capabilities, and secure meaningful technology transfer rather than simple “off-the-shelf” purchases.

Key questions on the table include:

• How much construction (or at least final assembly) can be done in Polish shipyards?
• What level of access will Polish engineers have to design data, combat systems integration and life-cycle support?
• Will the chosen partner help modernise local infrastructure and train a new generation of specialists, positioning Poland as a regional hub for submarine support?

The government has repeatedly said that the Orka contract must create “added value” for the domestic defence sector, not just fill an operational gap.

A defining moment for Poland’s navy

If the Council of Ministers confirms a partner country this week, it will mark the most consequential decision for the Polish Navy in a generation. The choice will determine not only what kind of submarines Poland sails in the 2030s and 2040s, but also which foreign partners it relies on for training, technology and operational cooperation.

After twelve years of analysis, visits, and shifting timelines, the window for further delay has largely closed. With ORP Orzeł nearing the end of its life, tensions with Russia high, and allies watching closely, Warsaw is under pressure to translate plans and political declarations into a concrete contract.

Whether Poland ultimately opts for Swedish, German, Italian, French, Spanish or South Korean technology, the Orka deal will send a clear signal about how the country sees its role in Baltic security, NATO’s maritime posture and Europe’s rapidly evolving defence industrial landscape.