Romanian farmers assess that autumn rains – especially in September and October – laid solid foundations for this year’s cereal crops. The snow cover from December and January, as well as further rains at the turn of winter, also contributed to rebuilding soil water reserves. As a result, hopes are growing in the industry that the total production of cereals and oilseeds in 2026 may approach the records from a few years ago, or even surpass them.
According to estimates cited in the press, the preliminary scenario assumes around 29 million tons of cereals and oilseeds in 2026 – a level close to the result from 2021, when production exceeded 30 million tons. Some farms are even more optimistic and are counting on breaking the record, emphasizing that maintaining favorable moisture conditions in critical vegetation phases will be key.
At the same time, a more cautious tone emerges in the forecasts prepared by COCERAL – the European association of grain and oilseed traders. In its December update, the organization indicated a moderate increase in grain production in Romania and growth in the oilseeds segment compared to the previous year. Such forecasts at this stage of the season carry risks – which is why the market is awaiting the next update, scheduled for March.
Romania’s results are also important from a macroeconomic perspective. Agriculture in Romania holds greater weight in the economy than in many Western European countries, and fluctuations in yields – especially in cereals – can significantly impact GDP dynamics. Therefore, the announcement of a season „close to record” is interpreted not only as information for the agricultural market but also as a potential factor stabilizing economic growth in 2026.
Against the backdrop of Europe, the optimism in Romania does not mean widespread improvement. COCERAL forecasts that total grain production in the European Union and the United Kingdom in 2026 may slightly decline compared to the exceptionally high harvest of 2025 – primarily due to yields returning to more „normal” levels after an extraordinarily good year.
In practice, this means that Romania – if the scenario of very good harvests is confirmed – could once again play the role of one of the pillars of supply in the Black Sea region and on the EU market. For farmers, this would be an opportunity for a strong sales season, and for the economy – an argument that after a challenging 2025, the agri-food sector could return in 2026 to its role as a significant driver of growth.
