This year’s agricultural season in Romania may well be remembered as a turning point: after recent years of erratic weather and yield setbacks, 2025 has brought renewed optimism, with forecasts suggesting record harvests for key crops such as wheat and rapeseed. Yet challenges remain, particularly for summer crops facing heat stress and water deficits.
According to forecasts from agronomists and data from regional monitoring services, Romania’s wheat sector is poised for its strongest performance in decades. The European Commission and national sources estimate average yields for soft wheat at around 4.97 tonnes per hectare, about 7.8 % above the previous year and approximately 20.9 % higher than the five-year average. Based on these yield estimates and expanded sowing areas, some analysts foresee Romania harvesting between 11 and 13.3 million tonnes of wheat — with more optimistic projections even reaching 14 million tonnes. That would break national records and cement Romania’s role as a major grain supplier in the Black Sea region.
Similarly, the rapeseed crop is expected to reach historic levels. The area sown for rapeseed in late 2024 exceeded 700,000 ha — a new high — and yield projections suggest production could approach 2 million tonnes, nearly doubling output from 2024. By contrast, barley plantings declined this year, and output is projected to fall relative to the previous season. Nonetheless, even with reduced area, barley output is still expected to be among the larger harvests in recent years.
Corn (maize), Romania’s most prominent summer crop, presents a more mixed picture. The European Commission forecasts a crop of 10.1 million tonnes, based on an average yield of 4.48 t/ha, which is moderate by Romanian standards. Some private analysts are more bullish, forecasting up to 11.4 million tonnes under favorable conditions. However, summer dryness and limited water availability for irrigation have put pressure on yield potential, especially in regions dependent on rainfall. The Joint Research Centre (JRC) had already flagged concerns mid-season that hot, dry conditions would curtail summer crop development, particularly for maize.
Contextualizing these patterns with continental trends, the JRC noted that winter crops in Romania benefited from favorable moisture conditions through much of the season, allowing them to exceed average performance. But summer crops — planted or maturing during the drier months — faced stress, with biomass accumulation lagging and yield risks rising.
Was 2025 a Good Year or a Weak One?
Broadly, the 2025 season represents a strong recovery and an opportunity for record yields in Romania’s grain and oilseed sector. For wheat and rapeseed, indicators point to outstanding performance — likely among the best in decades. These results would help offset the struggles of recent years, particularly when weather disruptions and droughts weighed heavily on yields.
However, the picture is not uniformly positive. The difficulties faced by summer crops, especially maize, underscore that gains remain conditional on favorable weather through harvest. In regions with less access to irrigation or more vulnerable to heat stress, farmers may feel that the season’s promise was only partly fulfilled.
Moreover, structural and logistical hurdles remain. The ability to transport, store, and market the increased output efficiently will be tested. As Romania steps up its role as a grain exporter in the Black Sea-Danube corridor, maintaining infrastructure resilience and export capacity will be crucial.
In conclusion, 2025 can be characterized as a strong year for Romanian agriculture — especially in winter grains and oilseeds — with the potential for record harvests. But success still hinges on how well summer crops hold up and how effectively the sector manages downstream challenges.
