Russia has withdrawn from the 1990 Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE), which limited the types of conventional military equipment that NATO and the then-Warsaw Pact could deploy. The CFE was intended to minimise the risk of war in Europe by using the warming of relations between east and west. Russia’s foreign ministry stated that the push for enlargement of NATO had led to alliance countries circumventing the treaty’s group restrictions, and that the admission of Finland into Nato and Sweden’s application meant the treaty was dead.

The CFE treaty aimed to reduce the opportunity for either side to launch a rapid offensive against the other. It placed verifiable limits on certain types of military equipment such as tanks, aircraft, and artillery pieces, which would be indispensable for a surprise attack but also necessary to turn the attack into a larger-scale operation. The Soviet Union and later the Russians viewed the treaty as undermining their superiority in numbers and availability of conventional weapons.

Russia’s withdrawal from the CFE is not as significant on its own as it might appear, but it prepares the way for an increase in production and deployment of those items identified by the treaty as necessary for sudden attacks. The war in Ukraine has led to a significant increase in the production of military equipment, and Nato member states are finding their manufacturing capacity for ammunition and weapons is well below the use and wastage involved in the Ukraine war.

Putin’s increasingly aggressive stance will add to concerns for the Baltic states and Poland, as they have a significant number of ethnic Russians as part of their populations. A sudden assault against the Suwałki Gap could cut links to the Baltic states quickly and present Nato with a fait accompli, blocking access to Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia. However, the likelihood of a Russian attack is small, but Putin likes to keep his options open and use whatever levers he has to try and prise Nato’s members apart.