Estonian intelligence head, Colonel Ants Kiviselg, has stated that Russian forces will not be able to push Ukrainian Armed Forces (AFU) back across the Dnipro River.

The AFU’s main objectives are to gain control of the left bank of the Dnipro River and push Russian units southwards, sparing Kherson from repeated Russian fire. The AFU has successfully held onto territories they liberated, particularly on the eastern bank of the river. The Russian offensive is beginning to show signs of waning due to deteriorating weather, and it is unlikely to achieve an operational breakthrough in the coming weeks. If mobility is restricted, armored vehicles are inhibited, and trenches fill up with water, a battle of wills will emerge, with Ukraine likely to have a greater will to win these battles as it defends its own country.

The U.S.-based think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has reported on the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ advance on the left bank of Kherson Oblast, with reports suggesting a breakthrough across the Dnipro River into the occupied region near Oleshky.

The Kherson region holds strategic significance for Ukraine. It is the southern gateway to the Crimean Peninsula, but also has its own access to the Black Sea and vital maritime routes. Control over this region is essential for safeguarding Ukrainian interests in the Black Sea, including trade, navigation, and access to international waters.

It is also an economic hub, with a thriving agricultural sector. Its agricultural output is significant for Ukraine’s overall economy with Dnipro River serving as a critical water resource for both agriculture and industry.

The Kherson region also plays a crucial role for Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, including pipelines and power grids. Located just kilometres from its borders is the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, which is Europe’s largest, and still under Russian occupation.

Would Ukraine be able to launch a successful counterattack in the Kherson region, Russian troops stationed in Crimea would find themselves in a very tough place. For that to happen, Ukraine would have to receive significant amounts of military aid ahead of a spring offensive in 2024.