Hungary/Germany – The upcoming European elections in June 2024 will undoubtedly reshuffle the cards on the right of the Parliament, where there are two groups: the ECR group (currently dominated by the Poles of the PiS, the Italians of Meloni’s party, and the Spaniards of Vox), and the ID group (featuring the French Rassemblement National, the German AfD and the Italians of the Lega).

There are also several parties among the current non-attached members who could join a group in the next 2024-2029 term, in particular the 12 MEPs from Hungarian Fidesz, the party of Prime Minister Viktor Orbán (the 13th Hungarian MEP in the government majority has remained in the EPP group, as he belongs to KDNP, a small Christian party systematically allied with Fidesz).

To exist, a parliamentary group in the European Parliament must bring together at least 23 MEPs from 7 different countries. This means that, in the event of defection or non-re-election, the existence of certain groups (notably the ID group) is not guaranteed.

In addition, several parties are wondering which political family they would like to belong to in 2024, leading to much speculation (whereas in 2019 and 2014 the situation was much more stable on the right of the European Parliament).

The situation for the German AfD seems to have become clearer in the summer of 2023. On the one hand, the party decided on its future list, which will be headed by lawyer Maximilian Krah; on the other, the AfD officially decided to join the ID political party (parliamentary fractions in the European Parliament should not be confused with European political parties; since 2019, AfD MEPs have been members of the ID parliamentary group in the European Parliament, but AfD was so far not member of the ID party).

Following his appointment as head of the AfD list, Maximilian Krah was approached by numerous foreign media, who questioned him on a wide range of subjects, including alliance politics in the European Parliament. Unsurprisingly, the Hungarian media were keen to find out more about the AfD’s plans, with two potential Hungarian partners for the AfD: Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz on the one hand, and the young nationalist party Mi Hazánk (which does not yet have an MEP, but managed to enter the Hungarian Parliament in 2022 with 6% of the vote) on the other.

With the European elections only a few months away, Maximilian Krah was cautious and tactical, and did not close the door on any options:

« Viktor Orbán said that he could not do this because of the influence of German investors in Hungary. I do not know how much influence German investors have in Hungary, but Orbán is probably aware of that. I take note of that and we will see.

We have noticed that young Hungarian voters are more in favour of Mi Hazánk than Fidesz. And I always suggest that we look to the future and not to the past. Having said that, I would very much like Hungarian MEPs to be in the same European group with us. »

Krah was also cautious, explaining that he had cordial corridor discussions with his Fidesz colleagues, but that he also felt that the young Mi Hazánk party undoubtedly had an interesting future.

The dream of some AfD partners in the ID group (in particular the French Rassemblement National and the Italian Lega) of working with Fidesz also no doubt explains Krah’s caution in the answers he was able to give to the press in September 2023.

Formal and informal meetings will undoubtedly continue until June 2024. But many things are likely to become clear at the last moment, between June 10 and June 30, 2024 (i.e. after the European elections and before the official date on which parliamentary groups must be formed for the first plenary session of the European Parliament’s new 5-year term).