Ukraine has successfully regained control of its Black Sea coastline and is now able to export grain via the Danube after pushing Russia’s Black Sea fleet back through the use of missile strike threats. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy stated that the Russian Black Sea Fleet is no longer capable of resistance in the western Black Sea and is „gradually fleeing from Crimea.” The country is now exporting its products by sea through a „temporary sea corridor” without the need for guarantees from Russia. In the last few weeks, dozens of grain ships have managed to leave Ukraine’s Black Sea ports carrying relatively small cargoes of grain, hugging the coast until they reach Romanian waters and sail on to the international markets. The Centre for Strategic Communications credits the Defence Forces of Ukraine for pushing the Russian fleet out of the north-western Black Sea, enabling the corridor to function.
However, Ukraine still faces restrictions in exporting its agricultural products due to insufficient export channels. The temporary sea corridor has allowed only 700,000 tonnes of grain to pass through Ukrainian seaports, whereas at this time of year pre-war Ukraine used to export millions of tonnes of grain each month. The majority of agricultural products are currently exported through the Danube ports, but this falls short of the approximately 6mn tonnes per month needed to sustain the agricultural sector as a critical part of the economy. Despite these challenges, there is optimism for Ukraine’s agricultural exports, with commercial director Oleksandr Solovei forecasting that the country could export up to 20mn tonnes of agricultural products by the end of the year.