The dynamics of EU-Turkey relations straddle a fine line between cooperation and contention, reflecting a partnership that is as complex as it is crucial. Turkey’s aspiration to join the European Union, formally initiated in 2005, has stalled amid an array of political and human rights concerns that have drawn criticism from various EU quarters. Despite these hurdles, the economic interdependence between Turkey and the EU is pronounced. Turkey entered a customs union with the EU in 1995, paving the way for increased trade flows and economic ties that have become deeply entrenched over the decades.

The refugee situation further complicates the EU-Turkey relationship. In 2016, the EU and Turkey struck a deal whereby Turkey would curb the passage of migrants into Europe in exchange for financial support and other political concessions, such as accelerated EU membership talks and visa-free travel for Turkish citizens. While Turkey has largely upheld its end of the bargain by hosting millions of refugees, the EU’s promises have been only partially realised, exacerbating frustrations on the Turkish side.

On the other hand, Turkey’s long standing NATO membership has become a topic of intense debate. The alliance has traditionally relied on Turkey for its strategic access to the Middle East, as well as control over the critical Bosphorus Strait, which is a gateway between the Black and Mediterranean Seas. Yet, Turkey’s acquisition of the Russian S-400 missile system poses a significant challenge, bringing into question the interoperability of NATO defences and potentially compromising the security of allied military technologies.

Nevertheless, the importance of Turkey within NATO is underscored by more than its strategic location. Turkey contributes significantly to NATO’s defence capabilities through its participation in international missions and its substantial military resources. For example, Incirlik Air Base in Turkey has been a critical asset for the United States and NATO, facilitating operations in the Middle East. Furthermore, Turkey’s military involvement in conflict zones, such as Afghanistan and the Balkans, demonstrates its role as an active NATO member.

Economically, Turkey’s trade relationship with the EU is also a tale of deep-seated ties and potential. The EU is Turkey’s largest export market and a significant source of imports, making the economic relationship mutually beneficial. Moreover, Turkey has been an attractive destination for European investment, with European companies heavily invested in sectors ranging from automotive to finance and services.

However, the political landscape within Turkey presents a thorny issue for EU relations. The crackdown on dissent and the press, judicial reforms that have raised concerns about the independence of the judiciary, and the overall trajectory towards authoritarianism have all resulted in a cooling of enthusiasm for Turkey’s EU accession.

In the realm of defence, Turkey’s actions in Syria, where it has undertaken military operations against Kurdish forces allied with the West in the fight against ISIS, have also been a source of friction. This has led to complex diplomatic dances as the EU and NATO seek to balance strategic interests with concerns over Turkey’s domestic and foreign policies.

Looking ahead, the EU and NATO are faced with the challenge of maintaining a functional relationship with Turkey, one that addresses security needs and economic benefits while also advocating for democratic principles and human rights. The EU’s diplomatic engagement with Turkey over Cyprus, energy exploration rights in the Eastern Mediterranean, and broader regional stability is reflective of the nuanced and multifaceted nature of this relationship.

As Turkey continues to assert its regional influence, the EU and NATO must navigate these relationships with a blend of strategic patience and diplomatic acumen. Balancing Turkey’s role as a near neighbour and pivotal regional power with the West’s expectations for democratic reforms will likely define the trajectory of EU-Turkey and NATO-Turkey relations for years to come.