The results of the 2025 Czech parliamentary elections have sent ripples far beyond Prague, reshaping the political landscape of Central Europe and raising questions about the future of EU unity and European support for Ukraine. The victory of Andrej Babiš’s populist ANO movement marks a potential turning point in the region’s balance of power, one that may strengthen nationalist and eurosceptic forces while complicating coordination within the European Union.
Under the previous government, the Czech Republic pursued a firmly pro-European and pro-Ukrainian course, aligning closely with Brussels and NATO. The return of Babiš, however, signals a possible shift toward a more pragmatic or even skeptical stance on European integration. While his party did not win an outright majority, Babiš is expected to seek coalition partners among the right-wing Freedom and Direct Democracy (SPD) and the Motorists’ Party—both of which advocate a more nationalist and anti-Brussels agenda. Should such a coalition take shape, Czech foreign policy could move closer to that of Hungary or Slovakia, where leaders have pursued more cautious, sometimes ambivalent, approaches to the war in Ukraine and to EU decision-making.
This change of tone could have direct consequences for Ukraine. During the past three years, Prague has been among Kyiv’s staunchest allies, supplying arms, offering humanitarian support, and advocating for strong EU sanctions against Moscow. Babiš, by contrast, has campaigned on promises to limit military aid and focus on domestic issues, suggesting that “Czechs should not suffer for other people’s wars.” If this rhetoric translates into policy, it may weaken one of Ukraine’s most consistent sources of European support and embolden voices across the continent calling for “war fatigue” or negotiated compromise with Russia.
The European Union, too, faces challenges stemming from the Czech vote. The prospect of a eurosceptic government in Prague adds strain to an already fragile balance within the bloc. Together with Hungary and Slovakia, the Czech Republic could form part of a loose alliance of member states resistant to deeper integration and to centralized EU initiatives on climate, migration, and defense. This shift might further complicate consensus-building in Brussels, particularly in areas that require unanimity, such as sanctions policy or enlargement. Analysts warn that the election could “further crack the unity of the Twenty-Seven” on foreign policy matters and slow progress toward a more coordinated European defense posture.
Still, it would be premature to assume a full-scale realignment. The Czech Republic remains institutionally anchored in NATO and the EU, and President Petr Pavel—himself a former NATO general—has already signaled that he will block ministerial appointments that threaten those commitments. The Czech Senate and judiciary also provide constitutional safeguards that limit how far any government can deviate from the country’s international obligations. Moreover, Czech public opinion remains broadly supportive of EU membership and wary of Russian influence, factors that could restrain any dramatic policy turns.
The regional implications, however, are harder to predict. A Czech government more skeptical of confrontation with Moscow would bolster Hungary’s long-standing opposition to further EU sanctions and reduce pressure on Slovakia’s leadership to distance itself from Viktor Orbán. Together, these states could form a more cohesive Central European bloc challenging Brussels on migration, sovereignty, and the pace of green and defense reforms. This would further isolate Poland and the Baltic countries, which continue to champion a hard line toward Russia and strong transatlantic cooperation.
In this sense, the Czech elections may be seen not only as a domestic political shift but also as a barometer of Europe’s broader ideological divide. The populist tide that once seemed to ebb is now resurging across Central Europe, fueled by economic uncertainty, war fatigue, and disillusionment with Brussels’ bureaucracy. Whether Babiš ultimately steers his government toward moderation or confrontation will determine whether the Czech Republic becomes a stabilizing or destabilizing force in the region.
For Ukraine, the stakes are existential. A reduction in Czech military or diplomatic support would be felt immediately in both material and symbolic terms. For the EU, the election underscores the fragility of unity in the face of war, populism, and competing national interests. And for the region as a whole, it marks another test of whether Europe’s democracies can resist the centrifugal pull of populist politics and maintain a coherent front in the defense of shared values and security.
