Donald Trump has won the presidential election again, raising questions about the future of NATO, Poland, and international rivalry. With control of Congress and a strong mandate, Trump plans to focus primarily on domestic issues, though U.S. foreign policy will also see changes. For Poland, the approach to NATO’s eastern flank and the situation in Ukraine will be crucial. Like before, Trump may adopt a transactional approach to allies, focusing on benefits for the U.S.
In the past, Trump increased defense spending and took a hard stance on China, engaging in a trade war and limiting access to sensitive technologies. His policy toward China and partnerships with India will continue. Allies such as Japan, Australia, and Israel will remain key, though Trump will assess cooperation based on U.S. interests.
The policy toward the Middle East and Africa will be similar to that of his first term—support for Israel and continued pressure on Iran. Europe will face challenges if Trump decides to impose tariffs, potentially leading to a trade war with the EU. Macron and other European leaders will strive to balance cooperation with protecting their own interests.
Poland, which has increased defense spending, can expect good relations with the new administration, though tensions may arise over U.S. policy toward Ukraine. Trump has been critical of military support for Kyiv, which could signal changes in U.S. policy. For Warsaw, maintaining consistent transatlantic relations will be key, especially if tensions emerge between the U.S. and the EU.
