Czechia Better Prepared for Energy Crisis Than Poland and Croatia

While Central European countries struggle with threats, Czechia demonstrates the ability to manage energy market turbulence

March 2026

While two articles from earlier this week described the threats to Poland and Croatia caused by Qatar’s halting of LNG production, economist Jan Bureš from the Czech bank ČSOB presents a completely different picture for the Czech Republic. Czechia, though located in the same Central European region, demonstrates significantly better preparedness to cope with energy crises than its neighbors. These fundamental differences in energy strategy and supply diversification are the key to this disparity.

Czechia: Learning from 2022

Czechia is in a significantly better position than it was just four years ago. According to Bureš, the country is now „in a decidedly stronger position than during the energy crisis that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.” This change was not accidental – it was the result of deliberate policy on energy supply diversification and expansion of liquefied natural gas import infrastructure.

Key differences include: higher levels of gas storage, more diversified supply routes, and lower dependence on single suppliers. Czechia built its resilience through investments in LNG terminals and long-term contracts that protect the country from sharp price fluctuations in the spot market.

Poland and Croatia: A Gap in Preparations

In contrast to Czechia, Poland and Croatia relied heavily on supplies from Qatar without sufficient backup of long-term contracts. Poland became dependent on a single LNG supplier from the Middle East, accounting for 20 percent of its supplies, while Croatia has even less diversified sources. This strategy left both countries vulnerable to any disruption in a single source of supply.

The difference is particularly evident in the approach to the spot market. While Czechia can draw from long-term contracts that have risen only marginally (from 30-35 euros to 35-40 euros per MWh), Poland and Croatia must deal with sharp increases in spot prices (which jumped from approximately 30 to nearly 60 euros per MWh). This means a significantly greater burden for Polish and Croatian energy consumers and businesses.

Gas Storage: Difference in Preparation

Czechia proactively increased its gas storage in recent years, building strategic reserves in case of future crises. Poland and Croatia invested less in storage infrastructure, meaning they have less safety cushion in case of sudden supply disruptions.

Jan Bureš emphasizes that „the infrastructure is different, gas storage levels are higher” in Czechia, and „there are more diversified supply routes.” This dual approach – both storage and diversification – makes Czechia a more resilient country to energy shocks.

Strait of Hormuz and Market Inequalities

While Iran threatens to close the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20 percent of global LNG trade flows, Bureš explains that Europe – and especially Czechia – is less threatened than might appear. „In terms of physical supply disruptions, Asia – including China – is actually more vulnerable than Europe,” the economist argues.

This is because most oil and gas passing through the Strait is destined for Asian markets. Czechia, thanks to its diversification strategy and connections with suppliers outside the Middle East (particularly the United States and Australia), is not directly threatened by potential closure of this transport route.

Inflation Risks: Different Scenarios

Although Czechia is in a better situation, inflation risks remain real. Bureš warns that if oil prices remain significantly above $100 per barrel for several months, there could be „stronger inflationary pressures in Europe,” which could add 0.6 to 0.9 percentage points to inflation in Czechia.

For Poland and Croatia, this scenario is much more dangerous. Due to greater dependence on the spot market and less diversified supplies, gas price increases will be more direct and more painful for consumers. In the worst case, inflation in these countries could rise significantly more than in Czechia.

For comparison: during the peak of the European energy crisis in 2022, gas prices briefly approached 300 euros per MWh. Poland and Croatia will be more vulnerable to a repeat of a similar scenario than Czechia.

Lessons from the Past

The article about Czechia’s situation suggests that Europe faces a change compared to 2022. However, this change is not evenly distributed across the continent. Countries like Czechia, which invested in diversification and infrastructure, are significantly better prepared than countries like Poland and Croatia, which lagged behind in these investments.

Bureš’s expert analysis shows that „Europe is better prepared today,” but this statement must be qualified – it applies to countries that took the right actions. Poland and Croatia are examples of countries still catching up.

What Awaits Poland and Croatia?

While Czechia can rely on the resilience built in recent years, Poland and Croatia face a difficult choice: quickly negotiate long-term contracts with alternative LNG suppliers, or tolerate higher spot market prices. Both options have significant implications for both countries’ economies.

The conflict in Iran and its consequences for global energy markets could prove to be a turning point – a lesson for countries that have previously downplayed the importance of energy independence and diversification. Czechia has already learned this lesson. For Poland and Croatia, time to act is running out.

As Bureš says, „the decisive question is how long the conflict will last.” The longer it continues, the more apparent the disparities will become between countries well-prepared and those that neglected their preparations. Poland and Croatia must act quickly.

Article contains a comparative analysis of the energy situation of Central European countries in light of the LNG crisis of March 2026