Hungarian oil company MOL could face a significantly higher tax burden next year on profits linked to its access to cheaper Russian Urals crude. The TISZA government plans to expand a special levy based on the price difference between Russian Urals crude and Brent, the global benchmark. According to estimates cited by Világgazdaság, the new rules could bring around HUF 10 billion, or nearly EUR 28 million, into the state budget as early as 2027.
The proposed changes were discussed during Tuesday’s parliamentary session. The government submitted the draft bill for public consultation in mid-June. The aim is not only to extend the current tax mechanism, but also to apply it more broadly to profits generated from the price gap between Russian crude and international market prices.
MOL has long relied on supplies of Russian-origin crude, which is cheaper than Brent. At the same time, the prices of the fuel products sold by the company are more closely linked to global benchmark prices. This means that the gap between the cost of purchasing crude and the market value of refined fuels can generate an additional margin. The state already captures a large part of this profit through a special tax on the price difference.
The current rules are more favorable to MOL when the price gap between Brent and Urals remains relatively small. At present, if the difference is below USD 5 per barrel, the tax rate is 0 percent. Only above that threshold does a very high levy of 95 percent apply.
The amendment would introduce a progressive system. If the price difference is below USD 2 per barrel, no tax would be charged. For a difference between USD 2 and USD 5, however, a 50 percent tax rate would apply. The portion exceeding USD 5 would still be taxed at 95 percent.
For MOL, this would mean that the special tax would start to apply even when the price advantage of Russian crude over Brent is smaller than the current threshold. According to Erste Bank, the proposed system would clearly be disadvantageous for the company. The institution estimates that the maximum negative impact could reach around USD 70 million, depending on how the price difference between Urals and Brent develops.
In 2025, MOL already paid USD 84 million in special tax related to the price gap between the two crude grades. At an average exchange rate of HUF 352 per dollar, this amounted to about HUF 29.6 billion in budget revenue. The growing tax burden shows that access to Russian crude, while still economically beneficial for the company, is becoming increasingly costly in political and fiscal terms.
The changes are part of a broader dispute over who should benefit from the extraordinary profits generated by continued access to Russian energy supplies. The government argues that part of the advantage enjoyed by a strategic company should flow into the state budget. For MOL, however, this means further pressure on profitability and greater dependence on regulatory decisions.
So far, the market has not reacted nervously. By early Tuesday afternoon, MOL shares were up 0.4 percent, while the company’s market capitalization had increased by more than a quarter since the beginning of the year. Investors appear to believe that the company remains financially strong, even though the new tax could reduce some of the benefits MOL gains from refining cheaper Russian crude.
