Belarus has entered the main phase of its 2026 agricultural season with encouraging early results from the winter barley harvest. However, uneven rainfall, declining soil moisture in the south and concerns over the potato crop mean that the final outcome will depend heavily on weather conditions and the efficiency of harvesting operations over the coming weeks.

By 13 July, winter barley had been harvested from around 100,000 hectares, representing almost 40% of the planned area. Farmers had collected 416,000 tonnes, with an average yield of 42 centners per hectare, equivalent to 4.2 tonnes per hectare. The harvesting pace was reported to be faster than in 2025 in all six regions of the country. Brest Region led production with 135,000 tonnes, followed by Gomel and Grodno regions. (eng.belta.by)

The early figures support the government’s ambitious target of gathering at least 11 million tonnes of grain in 2026. The authorities have presented the season as an opportunity to strengthen domestic food supplies and provide sufficient grain for the country’s large livestock sector. Nevertheless, the government’s broad harvest target should not be directly compared with narrower international cereal statistics, as the categories and crops included may differ. (government.by)

The 2026 campaign follows an above-average season. The UN Food and Agriculture Organization estimated Belarusian cereal production in 2025 at approximately 8.7 million tonnes. This included 2.9 million tonnes of wheat and about 1.5 million tonnes each of barley and other cereals, mainly triticale. FAO attributed the relatively strong result to adequate and well-distributed rainfall during the key growing period. (FAOHome)

Larger corn and potato areas

Belarus adjusted its planting structure ahead of the current season. Approximately 1.5 million hectares were planted with winter cereals, while the authorities planned to increase spring planting after a wet autumn reduced the area available for winter crops. The agricultural strategy also envisaged a shift towards corn, with smaller areas allocated to barley and oats. (eng.belta.by)

The planned corn area reached more than 1.28 million hectares, reflecting the crop’s importance for animal feed. Sugar beet was assigned around 106,000 hectares, while fibre flax was planned on approximately 44,000 hectares. By late April, more than one million hectares of spring crops had already been sown, equivalent to 44% of the planned area. Farmers had also accumulated 760,000 tonnes of mineral fertilisers in terms of active ingredients, or 91% of the amount required for spring work. (eng.belta.by)

Potatoes have received particular attention this year. Agricultural organisations were instructed to increase their potato area and raise production to around one million tonnes. The officially planned planting area was expanded from approximately 17,000 to 22,000 hectares following the shortages experienced on the domestic market in 2025. Overall national potato output is considerably higher when production from households and private gardens is included. (eng.belta.by)

The expansion is intended to avoid another gap between domestic demand and market supply. Last year’s shortages exposed weaknesses in storage, procurement and distribution, while producers also had incentives to sell potatoes abroad at more attractive prices. This makes the 2026 potato harvest economically and politically important, even though it accounts for a relatively small share of Belarus’s agricultural land.

Uneven weather conditions

Weather conditions were initially favourable. In mid-June, Belhydromet reported adequate moisture supplies and good visual assessments of spring cereals. Warm temperatures supported the formation of grain ears, while crops in the southern regions were developing ahead of those in northern Belarus. (belgidromet.by)

The situation became more difficult toward the end of June. Hot weather and insufficient precipitation reduced soil moisture, particularly in southern and south-western Belarus. By early July, low moisture reserves had been recorded across much of Brest Region, as well as in southern parts of Grodno Region and some districts of Gomel and Minsk regions. Conditions remained better in the north and across much of central Belarus. (belgidromet.by)

Subsequent rainfall brought mixed consequences. Moderate rain can support crops still filling grain, improve grass growth and help later crops such as corn. At the same time, wet conditions during harvesting increase the risk of grain losses and raise demand for drying facilities. President Alexander Lukashenko has instructed agricultural managers to ensure that combines, grain dryers and staffing are ready for the most intensive stage of the harvest. (eng.belta.by)

Rain and humidity also increase the danger of late blight in potatoes. Authorities have therefore called for intensified crop protection. Failure to control the disease could undermine the planned increase in potato production and recreate supply problems later in the year. (eng.belta.by)

Fodder campaign advances

The season is also important for Belarus’s dairy and meat industries, which require large quantities of domestically produced fodder. By 13 July, farmers had produced 323,000 tonnes of hay and almost 9.7 million tonnes of haylage. Grass forage production reached close to three million tonnes in feed-unit terms, although this represented less than one-third of the full-season target. (eng.belta.by)

The strong growth of grasses has improved the outlook for livestock feed, but timing remains crucial. Excessive rainfall can reduce forage quality and complicate storage, while prolonged dry spells may limit subsequent grass cuttings.

The opening weeks of the harvest therefore suggest a potentially strong agricultural season for Belarus, led by good winter barley yields and an expanded production programme. Yet the final result remains uncertain. Grain quality, the condition of corn and potatoes, regional moisture shortages and the capacity of farms to harvest and dry crops quickly will determine whether the government’s ambitious targets can be achieved.

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