Armenia after the election: Pashinyan holds on to power, but the country remains divided

Armenia’s ruling Civil Contract party, led by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, won Sunday’s parliamentary election. According to preliminary data from Armenia’s Central Electoral Commission, after ballots had been counted from all 2,005 polling stations, Pashinyan’s party received 49.81 percent of the vote. This means that the prime minister is likely to remain in power and continue his current political course, based on closer ties with the West and attempts to normalize relations with Azerbaijan and Turkey.

Second place went to Strong Armenia, a bloc linked to Russian-Armenian businessman Samvel Karapetyan, which won 23.29 percent of the vote. The Armenia Bloc, with 9.94 percent, and the Prosperous Armenia party, with 4 percent, are also expected to enter parliament. The final results will be announced after procedural checks and the review of any possible complaints.

The June 7 election was significant for Armenia far beyond ordinary party competition. It was the first parliamentary vote after the dramatic events connected with Armenians’ loss of control over Nagorno-Karabakh in 2023. For Pashinyan, the election was a test of whether society would accept his policy: moving away from traditional dependence on Russia, strengthening relations with the European Union and the United States, and attempting to close the long-standing conflict with Azerbaijan.

Civil Contract’s victory strengthens the prime minister’s mandate, but it does not give him complete political freedom. Pashinyan’s party won clearly, but it did not secure a majority that would allow constitutional changes to be passed easily. This matters because some aspects of peace talks with Azerbaijan are linked to constitutional and symbolic issues, including references to Nagorno-Karabakh.

The strong performance of opposition forces shows, however, that Armenia remains deeply divided. Strong Armenia and other opposition groups criticized Pashinyan for his policy toward Karabakh and accused him of making excessive concessions to Azerbaijan and the West. Part of the opposition supports maintaining closer relations with Moscow, arguing that breaking with the Russian direction could be dangerous for Armenia economically and strategically.

The election campaign took place in an atmosphere of tension. Strong Armenia’s leader, Samvel Karapetyan, was under house arrest on charges that he himself described as politically motivated. Before the vote, there were also reports of opposition candidates being detained and allegations of irregularities. The election was observed by an OSCE/ODIHR mission, which is expected to present its preliminary assessment of the electoral process.

For the region, the election result means the likely continuation of Yerevan’s current policy. Pashinyan will try to maintain a balance between cautiously distancing Armenia from Moscow and avoiding a complete break with Russia, which remains an important economic partner for the country. At the same time, the government will seek to deepen relations with the West and continue peace talks with Azerbaijan.

The election therefore revealed two parallel processes. On the one hand, a majority of voters gave Pashinyan the right to continue governing and to lead Armenia toward the West. On the other hand, the strong result achieved by the opposition is a reminder that the social costs of the loss of Karabakh, distrust toward neighboring countries, and fears of Russia’s reaction will continue to shape Armenian politics.